Investment and Investment Finance in Croatia, how can the EIB contribute? Dario Scannapieco and Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank

Transcription

1 Investment and Investment Finance in Croatia, how can the EIB contribute? Dario Scannapieco and Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank 24 March 2014

2 Outline EU and Croatia key challenges The Investment and Investment Finance crisis How can the EIB contribute? 24 March

3 EU recovery on the cards, but the crisis has led to a significant reduction in growth potential EU real and potential growth Change in potential output growth vs 2007 Real GDP growth forecasts Source: Eurostat, European Commission 24 March

4 Still in a deep investment crisis Change in investment between 2008 and 2013 (2008 = 100) Gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP Source: European Commission 24 March

5 The employment crisis brings to the fore short and long term issues Unemployment rate (total) (in percent) Unemployment rate (in percent) Source: Eurostat 24 March

6 Europe is falling behind in terms of productivity growth Average productivity growth for the EU, Japan and the United States 6 * For comparability only EU-OECD member countries considered 24 March

7 Outline EU and Croatia key challenges The Investment and Investment Finance crisis How can the EIB contribute? 24 March

8 Decline in gross fixed investment in the EU 10% 0% Total EU relative to the 2008 average -10% -20% -30% Other investment Machinery and equipment Non-residential construction Residential construction Total investment -40% Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 10% 0% Vulnerable EU countries relative to 2008 average -10% -20% -30% -40% Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep March

9 A different story in Croatia and in the NMS 10% 0% Croatia relative to the 2008 average -10% -20% -30% -40% Other investment Machinery and equipment Non-residential construction Residential construction Total investment Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 10% 0% New member states relative to the 2008 average -10% -20% -30% -40% Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Source: Eurostat 24 March

10 RDI investment gap Average annual growth in R&D expenditure in and R&D intensity in 2008 While some MS continued to close their RDI investment gap, RDI investment growth has stalled in others Source: Eurostat 24 March

11 Investment vs fiscal challenges Gross fixed capital formation 2013 Public investment (2007 = 100) vs gross debt / GDP Percent of GDP, 2013 Percent of GDP, % 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Estonia Romania Czech Republic Latvia Bulgaria Austria Belgium France Finland Poland Luxembourg Slovakia Sweden Croatia Spain Hungary Lithuania EU28 Denmark Germany Slovenia Italy Netherlands Portugal Malta United Kingdom Greece Ireland Cyprus private public Source: AMECO, 2014 Winter Forecast 24 March

12 15% The impact of the crisis on investment performance Nominal annual returns on investment by non-financial corporations in the EU 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Source: Own calculations based on the Orbis database (Bureau van Dijk) 24 March

13 The most immediate cause of the investment decline has been uncertainty Annual rate of change of business fixed investment against an index of economic policy uncertainty ( ) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% % 10 March 2014 European Investment Bank Source: Baker, Bloom, and Davis at and Eurostat March

14 Finance is not a problem across the board but it is a serious constraint for some countries, sectors and firms 1600 Investment and savings by non-financial corporations in the EU (in EUR bn) Source: Eurostat Gross savings Net lending (-) / borrowing (+) Net capital transfers Gross fixed capital formation 24 March

15 Financial fragmentation - the crisis has led to a collapse in intra-eu capital flows 35% Correlation between national investment and saving rates % Investment rate 30% 25% 20% Investment rate 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Saving rate 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Saving rate Before the crisis, financial markets of the EU were fully integrated, as measured by the independence of investment rates from saving rates. The crisis has reversed this development and made national borders within the EU obstacles again. Source: Wagenvoort and Torfs (2013) in Investment and Investment Finance in Europe, EIB Publication. 24 March

16 Diverging access to finance conditions for SMEs Source: Commission ECB surveys on SME finance 24 March

17 Main policy implications Resolving uncertainty needs commitment and rapid progress on the institutional reform of European banking Public policy should seek to enhance bank lending and alternative finance sources where there is evidence of financing gaps Last but not least, with some countries suffering from persistently low investment returns, structural reforms that encourage a shift of resources to more productive activities need to be continued Specific in Croatia Focus on structural reforms and shift of resources towards more productive activities. Capital accumulation a constraint to growth following the crisis, with uncertainty a key constraint, but also access to finance? 24 March

18 Outline EU and Croatia Key Challenges The Investment and Investment finance crisis How can the EIB contribute? The role of the EIB 24 March

19 The EUROPEAN INVESTMENT GROUP at a glance The European Investment Bank Providing finance and expertise for sound and sustainable investment projects. Total assets of EUR 512 billion at end 2013 Natural financing partner for the EU institutions Shareholders: 28 EU Member States Largest multilateral lender and borrower in the world AAA-rated and strong capital base Projects in over 160 countries The European Investment Fund Leading developer of risk financing for entrepreneurship and innovation across the EU supported over 1.5 million SMEs over 20 years Shareholders: EIB (62.1%), European Commission (30%), public and private financial institutions (7.9%) 24 March

20 2012/2013 The EIB - largest and most efficient IFI Peer group of MDBs whose areas of operation include Europe Notes: EIB accounts as at 31 December World Bank and IFC accounts as at 30 June EBRD accounts as at 31 December Loan portfolios are normally net disbursed loans. The IFC Portfolio (only) also includes equity investments. *IBRD only 24 March

21 Signatures and disbursements 24 March

22 Responding to the EU challenges 24 March

23 SME & Mid Caps lending targeted to needs Targeting SME lending to needs EIF in particular Equity: EUR 1.5bn (68 early / growth stage funds raising EUR 7bn); Guarantees: EUR 1.8bn (69 transactions attracting EUR 8.6bn of new loans for SMEs); Support for micro-enterprises (EU-28): EUR 54m, generating a loan volume of EUR 201m. More than SMEs supported 24 March

24 Growth and jobs: four key priorities 24 March

25 Investing for Youth EUR 9.1 bn, July-Dec March

26 EIB in Croatia in March

27 EIB lending in Croatia in EUR 3.6bn By sectors: % of GDP: EU 3.6 HR March

28 EIB in Croatia In the context of Croatia having joined the EU in July 2013, and against the background of considerable economic challenges, the EIB can: finance projects eligible for co-financing with EU Structural and Cohesion funds that are available following Croatia s EU accession; provide capacity building in project preparation and implementation and EU fund absorption; support public and private sector investment, particularly in the tradable sectors (including services), bearing in mind the need of the country to improve its competitiveness; and facilitate access to finance for SMEs and corporates that may be credit constrained 24 March

29 EIB project financing in Croatia in 2013 Strategic infrastructure sector In 2013, in the field of trans-european transport and energy networks (TENs), the Bank provided EUR 80m to finance the expansion of Zagreb Airport, being the first EIB PPP project in Western Balkans region 24 March

30 EIB SMEs lending in Croatia in 2013 EIB Loans for SMEs and midcaps o EUR 550m to finance projects promoted by small and medium-sized enterprises and midcap companies in Croatia EIB credit lines were provided to HBOR, Raiffeisen Bank and Raiffeisen Leasing EIF in Croatia EUR 5.2m for guarantee transactions enabling EUR 26.2m of new loans for SMEs; 24 March

31 JASPERS - Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions A Technical Support Facility, managed by the EIB, and co-sponsored by the EC, EIB, EBRD and KfW, helping to absorb EU Structural and Cohesion Funds Assistance provided free of charge by the EC and the EIB Croatia is the first country that benefitted from JASPERS prior to joining the EU In Croatia: up to the end of 2013 JASPERS completed 15 projects with estimated total value of some EUR 523 million Currently JASPERS deals with 91 active projects with estimated total value of some EUR 6 billion Sectors concern notably water /waste, public transport, roads, knowledge economy, energy 24 March

32 Prospects for a even stronger involvement Co-financing of EU funds Key target sectors: sustainable transport (roads, rail and municipal transport); water & environmental protection; rural development; Urban renewal and JESSICA Skills and Jobs /Competitiveness: EIB is appraising a EUR 160 m loan to support investment in university infrastructure in Croatia Access of SMEs and Mid-Cap companies to long term finance: Two new credit lines with HBOR amounting to EUR 400m to be signed today, New credit lines with other intermediaries in Croatia are in the pipeline SME initiative and focus on credit guarantee schemes Competitive energy and energy efficiency 24 March