THE COUNTRY STRATEGY OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK for the Russian Federation

Transcription

1 THE COUNTRY STRATEGY OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK for the Russian Federation (Main provisions) This country strategy for has been drawn up as an elaboration of the Development Strategy for approved at the 97th meeting of the Bank's Board and an updated concept of the Bank's development presented by the Chairman of the Board at the 98th meeting of the Board to focus efforts, available and new resources of the Bank on achievement and implementation of the most immediate projects and tasks on the territory of a member state, in this case of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as Russia or the Russian Federation) during an initial period of transformation of the IIB into a full-fledged multifaceted development bank. The implementation of this Strategy shall ensure: full-scale utilization of the Bank's potential as a multifaceted development bank, including a significant increase of a volume of its transactions; strengthening of influence and role of the IIB for Russia through contribution to greater volumes of trade with other member states and investment into joint projects of enterprises from member countries, including a support for the financial sector and small and medium-sized businesses; a high efficiency of the Bank's operations in accordance with the best practices of multilateral development banks. 1. Macroeconomic overview and a forecast of Russia's social and economic development for the strategy implementation term The revolutionary reforms of social and economic relationships in Russia have resulted in an economy based on market principles and a support for the private sector. A wise macroeconomic policy amid a constant growth of world prices for a majority of natural resources exported by the country allowed maintaining a surplus of both the budget and balance of payments. High world prices for fossil fuels and certain raw commodities stimulated the development of the mining industry and export potential. Among industries not connected with energy resources, trade, construction, telecommunications services were the most successful ones. Russia's key trade partners are the European countries and China. In several recent years, the country's annual budgets have been drawn up and approved by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation as component parts of the three-year financial plan that steps up the stability of the financial system. The refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia was used mostly as an inflation targeting tool while conducting the budget and monetary policies rather than a reference value of credit resources for market participants. In this connection in September, 2013, the Bank of Russia passed a number of resolutions on improvement of the system of monetary policy tools. It introduced a key rate as an indicator of bank rates, completed the setting of interest rate boundaries, and took a number of other decisions aimed at the strengthening of efficiency of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy's transmission mechanism. In January, 2013, Russia's Government approved 'The Principle Areas of Activities for the Period of up to 2018' that defines strategic development priorities for the country's economy and appropriate goals and objectives. This document specifies that, for the upcoming medium-term period, Russia will need to maintain a sustained economic growth at the rate of not less than 5 percent a year, to modernize technologies and infrastructures, social and public institutions meeting the challenges of contemporary world development, to build a competitive and efficient economy and on this basis to reach a decent level of living of Russian citizens that would be appropriate for Russia as one of the world's leading powers of the 21st century. The dynamic development of Russia's economy during was impeded by the world financial crisis that began in Due to a strong dependency from exports of energy and raw materials, as well as a high level of integration of Russia's banking and financial spheres into the world's financial system, the Russian economy was to a great extent exposed to the influence of crisis factors. However, thanks to the reserves accumulated before the crisis, an active social and economic policy, the crisis has been successfully overcome saw a significant reduction of the GDP and government budget deficit;

2 however, as of the end of 2011, according to reports of both official Russian agencies and international financial institutions, the GDP growth exceeded 4 percent ended at 3.4 percent of growth of Russia's GDP, 6.6 percent of inflation, and 5.3 percent of unemployment among economically active population. At year-end 2013, owing to a drop of world prices for fossil fuels, the pace of growth is expected to lower to 2.4 percent, with the inflation and unemployment rates being the same as in The banking sector, notwithstanding negative trends of assets quality reduction and loss of liquidity, as a whole is quite stable and does not give rise to concerns of the regulator. Problems are experienced only by a minor fraction of small and medium-sized banks. More than 1000 lending institutions are currently operating in Russia, with over 50% of all assets of the banking system being accumulated by 5 top banks. An annual reduction of the number of active banks by units represents a logical process of a gradual consolidation of the banking system and is not a sign of its degradation. Implementation of the risk management system based on the Basel III standards from January 1st, 2014, adds to the stability of the banking system. International rating agencies rank the country's investment attractiveness as being rather high. Thus, the Moody's agency awarded the country rating of Baa1 to Russia; in 2011 Standard and Poor's confirmed the BBB rating, and on August 15th, 2013, Fitch Ratings confirmed the country's sovereign rating at BBB. Companies from the fuel and energy industry and metallurgical industry are still top capital investment recipients, whereas investments into the machine-building sector remain insignificant. Direct foreign investments attracted by the Russian Federation are mostly targeted at the production and processing of fuel and energy resources, food production, wholesale and retail trade, services, real estate transactions and banking institutions. A comparatively low share of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia's GDP - about percent, while in the USA this indicator amounts to 50 percent, and in China it is over 60 percent, - poses one of the most serious threats to the stable economic growth. In the upcoming years, Russia's economy will be significantly influenced by the following factors: dynamics of world prices for energy resources and food; state and trends of economic development of the European Union that is Russia's leading trade and investment partner; harmonization of foreign economic regulation principles and legal base with the norms of the World Trade Organization of which Russia is a member since 2012; need for further alignment of regional social and economic conditions of functioning. Due to a high volatility of prices for energy resources, forecasts of basic macroeconomic indices for show some uncertainty, but in general they demonstrate feasibility of an economic growth and better standards of living of the population. A budget deficit is possible, but considering accumulated reserves it will not have significant negative effects for the economy and as a whole for the social and economic development of the country. Among major obstacles and threats for a sustained development of Russia, the following ones can be pointed out (according to the Principle Areas of Activities of Russia's Government for the Period of up to 2018): potential growth within the framework of the energy resources export model has been actually drained. All other things being equal, a lack of an active and targeted economic policy will slow down the economic growth pace to 2-3 percent a year. Such gross domestic product dynamics will prevent economic and social component parts of the country's development from balancing; a slower growth or stagnation of energy resources exports may become a factor of deceleration of the economic growth, rather than a factor of acceleration; In , a reduction of population of productive age by about 1 mln people a year is expected, that becomes one of the most crucial economic growth decelerators. However, negative demographic tendencies will be softened by an increase in the number of working people older than the pension age (their specific weight in the work force will grow from 9.6 percent in 2011 to 10.5 percent in 2015) and foreign labor migrants (from 2.1 percent to 2.9 percent respectively).

3 a decelerated growth of consumer demand of the population. A consumption growth will be more balanced, but slower; a need for a reduction of non-oil&gas deficit of the federal budget and implementation of the budget consolidation policy. A deficit cut from the current 10.5 percent of the GDP to the 5-6 percent level acceptable for the development of the economy will lead to a government demand containment and will contribute to a deceleration of the economic growth in general; a low quality of the institutional environment and infrastructure, a lack of efficiency and underbalanced financial system that makes Russia's economy less competitive and terminates investment attractiveness of Russia. Considering existing challenges and development conditions in Russia, a better competitiveness of Russia's economy on the basis of an intensive growth of labor efficiency, the setting up of stable highly competitive domestic markets, the improvement of investment and business attractiveness of the Russian economy, the utilization of growth factors not engaged to a full extent previously (including the support for small and medium-sized businesses at the state level and a greater share of such businesses in the country's GDP), a drastic strengthening of the innovative component of the economic development and more active use of advantages of international integration are defined as a top objective of the social and economic development for the nearest years to come. 2. Major business development areas and partners of the IIB in the Russian Federation 2.1. Industries and sectors defined as having a top priority for the attraction of investments In accordance with the approved priorities of efforts by Russia's Government for the nearest years to come the focus will be on the following industries and sectors of the economy: Development of the transport infrastructure, mainly of the regional aviation, construction and reconstruction of roads, development of a network of high-speed highways within the public-private partnership framework, as well as implementation of high-speed railway traffic projects; Support for science and technologies, including through construction of industrial parks and technoparks and formation of regional innovation clusters where investments into the development of science and technologies will be concentrated; Support for the export of hi tech goods and services, including an expansion of the range of financial products offered by specialized government export support institutions; Financial support for small and medium-sized businesses at the state level, including extension of credit facilities of not less than 100 bln Rubles at reduced interest rates through government development institutions; Development of international integration of Russia's economy, including by using capabilities of international development institutions. From the position of the IIB as a multilateral financial development institution, allocation of investments into the above stated industries and projects is of high priority as well, and consolidation of the Bank's efforts aimed at an active development of its business in the country of its domicile with joint efforts of public authorities and administrative bodies will allow achieving a synergetic effect when implementing projects on the territory of the Russian Federation. Creation of new jobs, mostly in non-resource industries, as well as higher labor efficiency shall become two of the most important objectives of the Bank's investment projects in the Russian Federation. When considering particular funding projects, the Bank will pay its particular attention to the following aspects: support for small and medium-sized businesses in Russia; contribution to the export of goods and services; support for projects in the field of public-private partnership; diversification of the country's economic base in order to decrease its dependency on export of

4 fossil fuels; support for highly value added production, creation of new jobs; implementation of the project on territories of several IIB member states (in order to realize its status as a multifaceted development institution to a fuller extent) Major partners and counterparties of the Bank in the Russian Federation For the purpose of expanding the Bank's business and promoting its interests in Russia, it is necessary to more actively interact with key relevant public authorities and institutions, ministries and agencies, the Central Bank, the Chamber of Commerce, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, national and international financial organizations, other associations that carry out investment activities in Russia. At the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is expedient to arrange for interaction with relevant public authorities and administrative bodies for a more successful realization of investment projects on territories of particular entities. The Bank will keep concluding cooperation agreements and participating in work of bilateral and multilateral business councils, conferences, workshops, exhibitions and similar events held by the following organizations: The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE), including the Public-Private Partnership Committee, the Exhibition Activities Committee, the Innovation Policy Committee, the Banks and Banking Activities Committee; All-Russian Public Organization for Small and Medium-Scale Entrepreneurship Opora Rossii within the framework of its regional development programs and in the field of international activities; Autonomous Non-profit Organization Agency of Strategic Initiatives within the framework of its initiatives Promotion of Hi Tech Medium-Sized Businesses on Global Markets and A Better Affordability of Financial Resources; Chamber of Commerce of the Russian Federation, including the Department for the Development of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Activities. Participation in public-private partnership projects is one of the most promising ways. For such projects, the IIB could act as a co-investor and contribute to the attraction of companies from other member states to their fulfillment. The Bank's Development Strategy for plans for practical implementation of such projects to start in For the purposes of the sharing of experience, coordination of activities and possible participation in syndicated loans on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Bank intends to maintain contacts with top international financial institutions and organizations. Within the framework of implementation of the Development Strategy for , the Bank set up relationships and actively develops cooperation with the Vnesheconombank Group and the VTB Group through joint participation in implementation of investment projects, arrangement for syndicated loans, provision of credit facilities to national development banks and export&import banks of the IIB member states, as well as support for small and medium-sized businesses in Russia and projects to be implemented on the public-private partnership principles. The following are among key partners of the IIB in the Russian Federation that have been working with the Bank and are of high-priority interest: Institution Category National financial institutions with public ownership Multilateral financial development institutions Name The Vnesheconombank Group The VTB Group The World Bank Group The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development The European Investment Bank The Black Sea Trade and Development Bank The International Bank for Economic Cooperation

5 Government organizations The Eurasian Development Bank The Central Bank of the Russian Federation Russian Agency for Small and Medium-Scale Business Support Agency for Strategic Initiatives to Promote New Projects Relevant Ministries Bilateral intergovernmental committees for trade & economic, industrial and science & technical cooperation between the IIB member states 2.3. A possibility for the creation on the basis of the IIB of an infrastructure platform of an International Financial Center (IFC) in Moscow An active participation of the IIB in the setting up of the IFC in Moscow can become an essential element of promotion of the Bank and improvement of its business reputation. In particular, the Bank takes an immediate part in activities of the taskforce set up under the Council for the President of the Russian Federation for the establishment of the IFC in the Russian Federation. The Chairman of the Board of the Bank is a co-head of the taskforce for improvement of administrative procedures formed to facilitate the doing of business for companies from the financial sector. Therefore, within the framework of the said activities the Bank examines proposals suggested for discussion, including legislative initiatives, issues comments and reasoned recommendations with international experience being considered. The Bank as an interstate organization with nearly a supernational status can become an additional, de facto international platform for the attraction of investments into the country. The Bank's international status could become an additional catalyst of foreign investments in Russia. Main measures to set up the IFC in Moscow are provided for by The Principle Areas of Activities of Russia's Government for the Period of up to 2018, the action plan The Creation of an International Financial Center and Improvement of the Financial Climate in the Russian Federation (Executive Order of Russia's Government No p of June 19th, 2013), The Principle Areas of the Tax Policy of the Russian Federation for 2014 and for the Planned Period of 2015 and 2016 (approved by Russia's Government on May 30th, 2013), The Russian Financial Market Development Strategy for the Period of up to 2020 (Executive Order of Russia's Government No p of December 29th, 2008). The above specified documents were developed in order to improve competitiveness of Russia's financial market by way of forming a stable, yet flexible regulative environment stimulating the emergence and development of up-to-date financial products (services) for Russian and foreign participants of the financial market, as well as the establishment of a high level of corporate management that ensures a protection of investors' titles and interests Main banking products the Bank offers in the Russian Federation Among products and services offered by the Bank both now and planned for the use within the framework of the Bank's development strategy for , the mostly demanded and competitive ones on the Russian market during can be considered to be the following: Provision of credit facilities to national and regional development institutions to be used for the lending to Russian business entities; Provision of loans to banks that implement small and medium-sized businesses support programs; Participation in syndicated lending jointly with other financial institutions to major investment and infrastructure projects; Investments into sovereign and municipal bonds of a member state, as well as bonds of top business entities; Financing of investment projects, including support for exports to other IIB member states; Attraction of long-term deposits and placement of the Bank's bonds on the Russian financial markets; Short-term attraction and placement of funds within the framework of liquidity management. In case of a successful realization of measures to develop the Bank's business in Russia using the above

6 listed products, at the turn of there can be examined an issue of practical application of other products, including combined ones, as well as ones offered on the basis of public-private partnership: provision of investments to companies not on the basis of credits but rather through the arrangement for bonding and purchase of shares; participation in regional infrastructure projects; participation in projects designed to increase the efficiency of energy utilization that is one of the key aspects of modernization in various economy sectors; investing into private equity funds with objectives that match the Bank's goals and objectives (for example, venture funds of direct investments into hi tech industries with a high added value, small and medium-sized businesses support funds, etc.)