U.S. Trade Overview, 2013

Transcription

1 U.S. Trade Overview, 213 Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce International Trade Administration October 214

2 Trade: A Vital Part of the Global Economy 3.1% World export volume growth in 213 U.S. export volume 2.7% growth, 213 Globally, trade accounts for more than 6% of gross domestic product (GDP). Trade volume growth typically outpaces real GDP growth, and is expected to do so over the next five years. Percentage Change in World Trade and Output Percentage Change from Previous Year Forecast Change in GDP (constant prices) Change in Total Trade Volume 1% U.S. Share of world exports in 213 (by value) The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for merchandise. Top Exporters, 213 China United States Germany Japan United Kingdom France Netherlands Korea, Republic of Hong Kong, China Italy Russian Federation Belgium Canada Singapore India While below the world average, U.S. export growth (by volume) exceeded the average for advanced economies in 213 and is expected to continue to do so in 214. Future world exports are expected to be largely driven by growth in emerging economies. 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% $ $5 $1, $1,5 $2, $2,5 Change in Real GDP 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Merchandise Exports Commercial Services Exports Billions of current US dollars Change in Export Volume Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; WTO International Trade Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce 2% 1% % 2% 1% % forecast United States Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies

3 96% Total U.S. export growth U.S. Trade in 213 Total trade (exports and imports) accounted for 3% of U.S. GDP in 213. U.S. exports totaled a record $2.3 trillion in 213, up 2.9% from 212 and 44.% from 29 when the global crisis caused a worldwide drop in exports. In 213, exports were up $63.7 billion from 212, with goods exports increasing by $31.1 billion and services exports increasing by $32.6 billion. The U.S. trade balance improved by $61.2 billion from 212 to 213, driven by the increase in both goods and services exports and a drop in goods imports. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services $2,757 3, $2,28 Total Imports Total Exports Trade Balance -$ Recession ,5 2, 1,5 1, , Billions of US dollars $5 trillion Total value of U.S. trade in 213 Historically, exports have grown as a share of U.S. GDP. However, in 213 exports contributed to 13.5% of U.S. GDP, a slight drop from 212. That year, increased domestic investment and reduced goods imports played a greater role in U.S. GDP. Share of GDP (Percentage) U.S. Exports as a Share of GDP Percentage Point Change in Share Personal consumption -.1 Change in Share of U.S. GDP Private domestic investment.5 Exports -.1 Imports Trade in goods drives the majority of both exporting and importing activity. Exports -1 Imports Government -.9 Services 3% Goods 7% Services 17% Goods 83% Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Trade Supports U.S. Jobs Exports of goods and services supported 11.3 million jobs in 213, an increase of 1.6 million jobs since 29. In 213, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported nearly 5,6 jobs. 1.6 million more jobs supported by exports since Millions of Jobs Supported by Exports Services Goods Nearly 35, U.S. companies exported goods in 212 (latest data available), a recordhigh. Small- and medium-sized exporters (SMEs) accounted for 98% of exporters and 33% of the known export value. 212 Export Value, by Company Size 212 Number of Exporters, by Company Size Large Companies 93,283 SMEs 449,4 Large Companies 6,872 SMEs 297,995 98% U.S. exporters that employ fewer than 5 employees 16% of SMEs and 55% of large company exporters in 212 exported to five or more countries. Companies that exported to five or more countries accounted for 88.6% of the known export value. SMEs Large Companies 212 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Exporting Companies % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 1 market 2-4 markets 5-9 markets 1-24 markets markets 5+ markets 212 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Known Export Value SMEs Source: Census Bureau; Rasmussen and Johnson, 213, Jobs Supported by Exports 213: An Update. U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration Large Companies % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1%

5 Merchandise Trade Highlights % Growth in real U.S. goods exports since 29 Total U.S. goods trade was $3.8 trillion in 213, up 47% from 29. Manufactured goods accounted for 87% of U.S. merchandise exports and 81% of merchandise imports in 213. Goods imports fell by nearly $8 billion in 213, the first time since 29. Meanwhile, goods exports rose by $33.9 billion, resulting in a $41.9 billion improvement in the trade deficit. U.S. Merchandise Trade Billions of current US dollars 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 Goods Imports Goods Exports Goods Trade Balance $2.27 trillion $1.58 trillion -1, Transportation equipment was the dominant export category in 213, totaling $258.3 billion, or 16.3% of total goods exports. Transportation also showed the largest dollar growth among goods exports in 213, increasing by $16.9 billion or 7.% from 212. Merchandise Exports, 213 Merchandise Imports, 213 All Other Merchandise 41.% Transportation Equipment 16.3% Computer & Electronic Products 13.% All Other Merchandise 42.1% -$689 billion Computer & Electronic Products 15.5% Transportation Equipment 14.7% Exports of petroleum products were a recordhigh in 213 Source: Census Bureau; Energy Information Administration Petroleum & Coal Products 7.6% Machinery 9.5% Chemicals 12.6% Machinery, Except Electrical 6.5% Chemicals 8.6% Petroleum imports fell again in 213, with the quantity of crude oil imports reaching the lowest point since The average annual price of crude oil also fell in 213, dropping by 4.% to $ In 213, the quantity of crude oil produced within the United States exceeded that of imports for the first time since the early 199s. Thousands of Barrels a Day 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (EIA) U.S. Domestic Production of Crude Oil (EIA) Unit Price of Crude Imports (Census) Recession Oil & Gas 12.6% $12 $1 7,893 $8 7,759 $6 $4 $2 $ Unit Price (dollars per barrel)

6 Services Trade Highlights Services trade surplus hit a record high in 213 Services exports hit a record high in 213, up 5% from 212 and 34% from 29. Despite a slight decline in 29, services exports have risen faster than services imports each year, leading to a growing services trade surplus. Services accounted for 3% of total U.S. exports in 213. Billions of US dollars $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Services Exports Services Imports Balance $687.4 $462.1 $225.3 $ Travel was the largest services export in 213, accounting for 25% of overall services exports. Travel also accounted for the largest share of U.S. services imports in 213. From 212 to 213, financial services showed the fastest growth, with exports increasing by 9.7%. Services Exports, $173.1 The U.S. has held a services trade surplus since 1971 Billions of US dollars $129.2 $123.4 $87.3 $84.1 $33.4 $24.5 $16.3 $16.1 Other Asia & Pacific Korea China Asia & Pacific Africa Japan Western Hemisphere Other Western Hemisphere Europe EU Canada Other Europe Brazil Mexico U.S. services exports largely go to markets in Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America. Since 29, services exports have grown by 121% to China, 4% to NAFTA partners, and 18% to EU countries. Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Top Export Markets in 213 1/3 More than one-third of U.S. merchandise exports went to Canada & Mexico U.S. exports span more than 23 destinations, with Canada and Mexico accounting for more than one-third of the total. Canada was the top export market in 213, at $31.6 billion. Canada was followed by Mexico, ($226.1 billion), China ($121.7 billion), Japan ($65.2 billion), and Germany ($47.4 billion). Among top markets, China showed the highest dollar growth compared to 212, up over $11 billion. Percentage Change, % 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% Canada $31.6 Mexico $226.1 EU-28 $262.2 China $121.7 Circle size indicates 213 export value Dollar values shown in billions of US dollars Top Export Markets and Growth, 213 Brazil $44.1 Japan $65.2 Hong Kong $42.3 Singapore $3.7 Korea $41.7 Switzerland $26.8 United Arab Emirates $24.4 Taiwan $25.5 Australia $26.1 Saudi Arabia $19. India $21.8 Of markets receiving more than $5 million in U.S. goods exports, potential TPP partner Brunei showed the fastest growth in 213 by percent change, up 254 percent compared to the previous year. While a smaller share of overall trade, U.S. goods exports to markets in South and Central America have shown the most rapid growth since 29, up nearly 77%. The trade surplus with this region was a record high in % U.S. export growth to Free Trade Partners Share of 213 Goods Exports by Region 46% 16% 2% 17% 44% Source: Census Bureau FTA Partners NEI Markets CAFTA-DR TTIP Trans-Pacific Partnership

8 Source Notes Global Trade and Economy World Development Indicators, World Bank Released June 213 IMF World Economic Outlook Released April 214 WTO International Trade Statistics 212 Released April 214 National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 214 U.S. Trade Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 214 National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 214 Jobs Supported by Exports 213: An Update, Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration Released February 214 Profile of U.S. Exporting Companies, Census Bureau Released April 214 U.S. Merchandise Trade Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 214 Energy Information Administration Released July 214 U.S. Services Trade Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 214 International Services Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released June 214 U.S. Export Markets Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 214

9 Region Definitions International Trading & Economic Regions EU-28: Trans-Atlantic Trade Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Free Trade Agreement & Investment Partnership Australia (FTA) Partners (TTIP) Brunei Australia Austria Chile Bahrain Belgium Malaysia Canada Bulgaria New Zealand Chile Croatia Peru Colombia Cyprus Singapore Costa Rica Czech Republic Vietnam Dominican Republic Denmark El Salvador Estonia Finland Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) Guatemala Honduras France Israel Germany Costa Rica Jordan Greece Dominican Republic Mexico Hungary El Salvador Morocco Ireland Guatemala Nicaragua Italy Honduras Oman Latvia Nicaragua Panama Lithuania Peru Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom National Export Initiative (NEI) Priority Markets Brazil China Colombia India Indonesia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Vietnam Singapore South Korea

10 For More Information: U.S. Trade Statistics: TradeStats Express National and state-level trade data Jobs Supported by Exports National and state-level detail Exporter Database Export data by company size Local Area Data: Metropolitan Export Series Export data by metro area Metro Report Reports and data on metropolitan areas State Reports Short statistical report for each state Additional Reports and Information: Reference Information Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and more Trade Statistics Access all statistical reports and databases Trade Policy and Analysis Home page for Trade Policy and Analysis Comments and questions should be directed to: Natalie Soroka Office of Trade and Economic Analysis Trade Policy and Analysis, Industry and Analysis International Trade Administration T

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12 The International Trade Administration s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements. Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis 141 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 223 T F October 214