Monthly Report PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY. April 2016 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Transcription

1 Monthly Report PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY April 2016 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2 Contents ACRONYMS... 2 HIGHLIGHTS... 3 REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS... 5 Inflation... 5 Business Tendency Index (BTI) and Composite Index of Economic activity (CIEA) 6 FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS... 7 Exchange Rates... 7 Private Sector Credit... 7 Government Securities... 9 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Merchandise trade balance Exports Destination of Exports Imports Origin of imports FISCAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Overview Tax revenue Non-Tax Revenue Grants Expenditure and net lending P a g e

3 ACRONYMS BTI CBR CIEA COMESA EAC EFU ICBT PSC SADC US$ Shs Business Tendency Index Central Bank Rate Composite Index of Economic Activity Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa East African Community Energy Food and Utilities Informal Cross Border Trade Private Sector Credit Southern African Development Community United States Dollars Ugandan Shilling 2 P a g e

4 HIGHLIGHTS Inflation: Annual headline inflation declined for the fourth consecutive month, registering 5.1% in April 2016 down from 6.2% recorded for March The decline is attributed to lower price levels for food crops, energy, fuel and utilities, as compared to a year ago. Indicators of Economic Activity: The high frequency indicators of economic activity reflected a slight improvement in business sentiments and a continued recovery in the level of economic activity. Exchange rate: On a monthly basis, the Uganda Shilling strengthened further against the US Dollar, appreciating by 0.6% to an average rate of Shs 3,343.6/US$ from Shs 3,365.3/US$ recorded in March Similarly, within the month under review, the Shilling strengthened by 1.4%. Private Sector Credit: As at the end of March 2016, the total stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) remained relatively unchanged, as at the February 2016 levels. High lending rates by commercial banks and other lending institutions have continued to constrain credit growth. Government Securities: In April, the primary securities market was characterized by a continued decline in yields, as liquidity conditions eased. Total issuances of treasury securities amounted to Shs billion with Treasury-Bills comprising Shs billion and Treasury-Bonds Shs billion. Exports: The total value of exports registered a monthly growth of 4.3% from US$ million in February to US$ million in March This was on account of a 5.8% increase in the value of non-coffee formal exports. Imports: The total value of imports (c.i.f) registered a 15.3% monthly increase from US$ million in February to US$ million in March 2016, driven by an increase in both government and private sector imports. 3 P a g e

5 Fiscal Sector: The domestic deficit in April 2016 amounted to Shs billion, which was higher than the programmed deficit of Shs billion. The higher deficit is attributed to the higher than programmed expenditures on recurrent activities. However, the overall deficit (including grants) was lower than programmed mainly due to the underperformance of the externally financed budget. 4 P a g e

6 REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Inflation Annual headline inflation declined for the fourth consecutive month, registering 5.1% in April 2016 down from 6.2% recorded for March The continued decline is largely attributed to lower food prices and to an extent prices for energy, fuel and utilities, as compared to a year ago. Annual food crop inflation declined to minus 4.2% in April 2016 compared to 0.8% recorded in March 2016, driven by falling food crop prices. Food crop prices, relative to a year ago, have declined since the start of 2016 January and this has been attributed to increased supply to the markets. Similarly, annual EFU inflation declined from 7.1% in March to 6.5% in April This was due to the fall in prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene during the month. In addition, there was a 1.5% reduction in the tariffs for electricity consumption. Annual core inflation, which excludes food, fuel, electricity and metered water, also declined to 6.4% during the month from 6.9% in March The decline in core inflation was attributed to a slower rise in prices for transport, recreation and culture as well as communication services, compared to the previous months. Figure 1 shows the trends in annual inflation for the year ending April Figure1: Annual Inflation Rates (April April 2016) Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics Inflation within the East African Community 5 P a g e

7 Annual headline inflation continued on a downward trend amongst all the EAC partner states, with the exception of South Sudan. The decline in headline inflation is attributed to a general reduction in food crop prices as well as the recent appreciation of the respective currencies which has led to price decreases especially of imported products. Table 1 shows the trends in annual headline inflation in the EAC region. Table 1: Annual Headline Inflation across the East African Region JAN-16 FEB-16 MAR-16 APR-16 BURUNDI 6.3% 6.7% 4.0% 2.6% KENYA 7.8% 6.8% 6.5% 5.3% RWANDA 6.6% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% SOUTH SUDAN 165.0% 202.0% 245.2% 266.4% TANZANIA 6.5% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% UGANDA 7.4% 7.0% 6.2% 5.1% Source: Respective National Statistics Bureaus Business Tendency Index (BTI) and Composite Index of Economic activity (CIEA) The high frequency indicators for economic activity reflected an improvement in business sentiments and give an indication of a continued recovery in the level of economic activity. The Business Tendency Index (BTI) was positive and slightly improving, registering 54.1 in April 2016 up from 53.7 registered for March The increase is an indication of optimism amongst investors about doing business in Uganda, especially in key sectors of agriculture, trade and Construction and Services. The composite index of economic activity (CIEA) also shows recovery in the level of economic activity from negative growth at the start of 2016 to 0.34% in April P a g e

8 FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Exchange Rates On a monthly basis, the Uganda Shilling strengthened further against the US Dollar, appreciating by 0.6% to an average rate of Shs 3,343.6/US$ from Shs 3,365.3/US$ recorded in March Similarly, within the month under review, the Shilling strengthened by 1.4% having opened the month at an average midrate of Shs 3,372.3/US$ and closing at Shs 3,325.6/US$. Besides the weakening of the US dollar against major currencies in recent months, the strengthening of the Shilling was also on account of elevated inflows mainly from offshore players targeting the relatively high yields on Treasury securities in Uganda. This was coupled with stronger inflows from export proceeds and inward remittances. The figure 2 shows the developments in the monthly average exchange rates between April 2015 and April Figure 2: Monthly Average Exchange Rates (April 2015 April 2016) Source: Bank of Uganda Private Sector Credit As at the end of March 2016, the total stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) had remained unchanged at Shs 11,208 billion, the same level recorded at the 7 P a g e

9 end of February An increase by 3.5% in foreign currency denominated credit during the month was offset by a fall in shilling denominated credit. The growth in the stock of foreign currency denominated credit was mainly attributed to increased demand for short term trade credit to finance imports following continued strengthening of the shilling against the dollar in recent months. On the other hand, shilling denominated credit has been declining for the last three months mainly due to high lending rates by commercial banks and other lending institutions. By end of March, the average lending rates had reached 24.4%, up from an average of 21.7% at the start of this Financial Year. The figure 3 shows performance of both shilling denominated and foreign currency denominated PSC over the year ended March Figure 3: Performance of PSC between March 2015 and March 2016 Source: Bank of Uganda By sector, the building, mortgage, construction and real estate sector remained the largest source of demand for PSC in March 2016, accounting for 23.6% and followed by the trade sector at 18.7%. On an annual basis, the total stock of outstanding private sector credit grew by 8.7% from Shs 10,309 billion in March 2015 to Shs 11,208 billion in March P a g e

10 Yields (%) Government Securities During April, there were three auctions of government securities - two for Treasury- Bills and one for Treasury-Bonds. Total issuances amounted to Shs billion with Treasury-Bills comprising Shs billion and Treasury-Bonds Shs billion. The primary market was characterized by a continued decline in yields across all tenors. The yields edged downwards largely on account of easing liquidity conditions driven by a cut in the CBR from 17% in March to 16% in April The weighted average yields to maturity for the month were 14.9%, 15.8% and 15.8% for the 91, 182 and 364 day tenors, respectively. The largest decline in yields was observed in the 182-day T-Bill, whose average weighted yield reduced by 2 percentage points from 17.7% in March. Figure 4 shows the trends in primary market yields of treasury bills from April 2015-April Figure 4: Primary Market Yields of Treasury Bills (April 2015-April 2016) Days 182 Days 364 Days 0.0 Source: Bank of Uganda 9 P a g e

11 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Merchandise trade balance On a monthly basis, the trade deficit expanded, increasing by 57% to US$ 93.9 million in March from US$ 59.8 million recorded in February The increase in the deficit is attributed to strong import demand which exceeded exports during the month. However, comparing March 2016 to the same period last year, the trade deficit narrowed, declining by 41.5% from US$ million in March 2015 to US$ 93.9 million in March Exports The total value of exports registered a monthly growth of 4.3% from US$ million in February to US$ million in March This was on account of a 5.8% increase in the value of non-coffee formal exports due to improved performance of gold exports - which accounted for 14.5% of export revenues during the month. The increase in non-coffee formal exports offset a decline in the value of coffee exports. Coffee remains Uganda s biggest export but its value recorded a 7.2% decline in March 2016 as export volumes reduced as compared to the February Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) exports also registered an increase by 5.5% to US$ 33.9 million in March 2016, driven by improvements in exports of beans and sugar across the region. Comparing March 2016 to the same period last year, export receipts declined by 8.7% from US$ million in March 2015 to US$ million in February This decline is on account of a fall in the price and volume of coffee exports over the year which caused earnings from coffee to decline by 43%. The international price of coffee was US$ 1.5 per kilogram of coffee in March 2016 compared to US$ 2.2 per kilogram in March This is due to increased supply on world markets and expectations of bulk harvests in Brazil during the second half of Table 2 shows the performance of exports during Feb and March P a g e

12 Table 2: Performance of Exports (US$ million) Mar-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Monthly Annual Change Change Total Exports % -8.70% 1. Coffee (Value) % % Volume 000,000 (60 Kg Bags) % % Av. Unit Value % % 2. Non-Coffee Formal Exports % -1.70% 3. ICBT Exports % -3.20% Source: Bank of Uganda Destination of Exports In March 2016, the COMESA region continued to be the biggest export destination for Ugandan products with a share of 40.3% followed by the Middle East, the European Union and Asia with a share of 19%, 18% and 14.3%, respectively. Imports The total value of imports (c.i.f) registered a 15.3% monthly increase from US$ million in February to US$ million in March 2016 driven by higher government and private sector imports. Government imports registered growth of 24.7% over the month with most imports being for project implementation, while private sector imports grew by 15.6%. The growth in the private sector imports is attributed to the sustained strong performance of the shilling against other currencies which encourages traders to import as well as the normalization of economic activities following the conclusion of the February 2016 general elections. The table 3 shows the performance of imports during February and March P a g e

13 Table 3: Performance of Imports (US$ million) Mar-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Monthly Change Annual Change Total Imports (c.i.f) % -21.6% Government Imports % 45.3% Project % 85.3% Non-Project % Formal Private Sector Imports % -23.1% Oil imports % -30.3% Non-oil imports % -21.7% Estimated Private Sector Imports % -21.2% Total Private Sector Imports % -23.1% Origin of imports Source: Bank of Uganda During March 2016, 46.6% of Uganda`s imports originated from Asia, 16.0% from the COMESA region, 15.7% from the European Union and 12.6% the Middle East. Total imports from Asia amounted to US$ 151 million, of which China and India were the leading contributors. By country, India remains the leading origin of Uganda s imports taking a 17.8% share of the total imports in March P a g e

14 FISCAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Overview The domestic deficit in April 2016 amounted to Shs billion which was higher than the programmed deficit of Shs billion. The increase in deficit was attributed to higher than programmed spending on recurrent activities. However, the overall deficit (including grants) amounted to Shs billion which was Shs billion lower than programmed. The lower overall deficit arose from the underperformance of the externally financed expenditures. Cumulatively, the overall deficit stood at Shs 3,555 billion in April 2016 against the budget of Shs 5,334 billion. Tax Revenue Tax revenue collections in April amounted to Shs 893 billion, representing a shortfall of Shs 19 billion or 2.1% against the target, as collections on both international trade and on goods and services underperformed. Revenues on international trade were affected by collections on import duties whilst underperformances by excise duty on phone talk time and VAT on beer and sugar affected collections on goods and services. On the upside, tax revenues from income, profits and capital gains performed above the budget by Shs 1.8 billion (representing a 1% surplus) as more than programmed collections on PAYE and withholding tax were realized. Table 4 shows the revenue performance in April P a g e

15 Table 4: Revenue performance, April 2016 (Billion shillings) Apr'15 Apr '16 Apr '16 Outturn Program Provisional Performance Deviation Revenue % (31.9) Taxes % (19.1) Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains % 1.8 Taxes on goods and services % (9.9) Taxes on international trade and transactions % (10.0) Other taxes % (0.9) Grants(excl. HIPC) % (31.0) Budget Support (Excl HIPC) % (3.3) Project Support % (27.7) Other revenue % 0.1 Property Income % 0.1 Sale of goods and services % (0.7) Fines, penalties, and forfeits % (0.4) Voluntary transfers other than grants n.a - Miscelleneous and unidentified revenue % Source: Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development 1.1 Non-Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue (NTR) performed slightly above the target of Shs 22.6 billion by Shs 1.5 billion or 7.1%, as more than planned administrative fees, fines and penalties from the various MDAs were realized during the month. Grants Grants (including HIPC) amounted to Shs. 31 billion which represented a 50% performance rate when compared to the target for the month. However grants excluding HIPC amounted to Shs 12.8 billion, with no budget support disbursements realized during the month. Debt relief (HIPC) amounted to Shs 18.2 billion. Expenditure and net lending Total expenditure and net lending in April 2016 were below the monthly target by Shs 516 billion or 29.7%, which was attributed to lower than projected spending on public investments. There were delays in disbursing funds associated with planned public investment projects. However, expenditures on recurrent activities were Shs 16.3 billion or 1.7% above projections for the month, as additional resources were required during the month to cover wage shortfalls and security-related spending. Table 5 below shows the fiscal performance for the month of April P a g e

16 Table 5: Fiscal performance, April 2016 (Billion shillings) Outturn Program Estimate Program Apr'15 Apr '16 Apr '16 Perf. Deviation Revenues and Grants % (32.4) Revenues % (19.0) Tax % (19.1) Non-Tax % 0.1 Oil revenues Grants(incl. HIPC) % (31.0) Budget Support (Incl. HIPC) % (3.3) Project Support % (27.7) Expenditure and Lending 1, , , % (516.0) Current Expenditures % 16.3 Development Expenditures % (311.2) Net Lending/Repayments % (245.6) Domestic Arrears Repaym. and Contigency 3.3 (20.4) % 24.6 Overall Fiscal Bal. (incl. Grants) (343.0) (758.6) (275.1) 36.3% Financing: % (483.5) External Financing (Net) % (324.1) Domestic Financing (Net) (92.8) (129.2) -45.6% (412.2) Errors and Omissions n.a Source: Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development P a g e