UK outsourcing across the private and public sectors. An updated national, regional and constituency picture

Transcription

1 UK outsourcing across the private and public sectors An updated national, regional and constituency picture Report prepared by Oxford Economics for the Business Services Association November 2012

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3 Contents Summary of Methodology... 3 Executive Summary Introduction Definitions Comparability with the 2011 report Report structure The overall size of the UK outsourcing market Estimates of total turnover Contribution to UK gross value added Contribution to UK employment Contribution to the exchequer Regional and constituency-level estimates Regional-level estimates Constituency-level estimates How the estimates are derived National level estimates of turnover by sector National level estimates of GVA and employment Estimating the regional level values Estimating the constituency level values Annex: Detailed tables List of tables Table 2.1: The size of the UK outsourcing market 8 Table 3.1: The UK outsourcing market by region 13 Table A.1: Estimation of sector employment 27 Table A.2: Estimation of sector tax contribution 28 Table A.3: Regional estimates by industrial sector 29 Table A.4: Estimates by parliamentary constituency 31

4 List of charts Chart 2.1: Outsourced services share in UK output, Chart 2.2: Outsourced activity for the public and private sectors... 8 Chart 2.3: Outsourced activity by type of service provided... 9 Chart 2.4: Outsourced services share in UK gross value added, Chart 2.5: Outsourced services share of UK workforce jobs, Chart 2.6: Jobs in outsourced services and other selected sectors Chart 2.7: Sector tax contribution Chart 3.1: Outsourced contribution to value added by region Chart 3.2: Outsourced contribution to employment by region

5 Summary of Methodology This report sets out the value of outsourced activities of all kinds in the UK, including estimates at the regional and parliamentary constituency level. It builds on a similar report published in April 2011 which dealt with the national picture only. The analysis here relates to 2010, this being the most recent year for which a reasonably accurate assessment can be made, given the availability of sectoral data at the refined level. Outsourced services are defined for these purposes as those which satisfy three criteria. They are provided by a private sector organisation to a client organisation, whether that client is in the public or private sector. They are provided under an agreement involving a degree of delegation of management responsibility. And they are of a kind more typically provided, or of a kind that would in the past have been more typically provided, by an inhouse team of the customer themselves. Our primary measure of industry size is the turnover derived from activities defined as outsourced, for which no official measure exists. Our estimates are derived by combining information available from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) with other official data, supplemented where necessary by reference to other research. More precisely, where possible we took as our starting point the 2010 turnover of business units classified to industries deemed likely to include at least some outsourced activity, as set out in the latest ABS. We then estimated the proportion of that turnover that should count as outsourced, helped by National Accounts supply and use tables showing transactions between industries as well as sales by those industries to final purchasers as well as judgements grounded in our previous work. For those few sectors where the ABS does not provide a good starting point for this exercise, we make reference to other official data sources including measures of output and public expenditure in order to update and refine our previous estimates. The detail of our methodology is described, for each activity separately, in Section 4.1 of this report. Having estimated industry turnover, we then established the gross value added (GVA) and jobs directly attributable to outsourced activities, most typically using the GVA-toturnover and employment-to-gva ratios found in the ABS. Finally, at the national level, we estimated the tax contribution of the industry by estimating the breakdown of GVA into component parts such as profits and wages, and deriving the consequent likely payment of five major company and employee taxes, based on ratios in the National Accounts. Estimates for turnover and GVA at the regional level were then calculated by allocating the turnover for each individual outsourced sector across the standard UK regions and countries in proportion to the split in turnover and GVA for the associated industry in the ABS. Jobs were then allocated taking into account the pattern of relative productivity indicated by industry-level data in the regional national accounts and regional labour market statistics. Finally, estimates at the constituency level were made by allocating the regional total for jobs for each outsourced sector in proportion to total jobs for the corresponding detailedlevel industry, using the Business Register Employment Survey. GVA and turnover at the constituency level were then derived, using the region-by-industry GVA-to-jobs and turnover-to-gva ratios. 3

6 Executive Summary In 2011 Oxford Economics was asked by the BSA The Business Services Association to estimate the size of the outsourced services sector in the UK, covering activities for both public and private sector clients, for the first time. This 2012 report updates those estimates and also breaks down the value of outsourced activity by region and parliamentary constituency. There is no single standard definition of an outsourced service, nor any particular consensus about the types of activity that could count as outsourced. Consequently in 2011 Oxford Economics worked up a definition in conjunction with the BSA. To qualify as outsourced for the purposes of this exercise, an activity would to have to satisfy two criteria. It would have to be governed by an ongoing or time-specific agreement involving a degree of delegation of management responsibility. And it would have to be a service more typically provided by an in-house team of the customer themselves or expected to have been more typically provided in that way in the past. The same definition is used in the present report. Putting all of the evidence together, we find that turnover across all outsourced sectors including IT, catering, facilities management, employment services, office support, technical consultancy, public services and many more to be in the region of 199 billion. That is equivalent to almost 7½% of total economy-wide output. A detailed breakdown of turnover by sector of provider is set out in the report. The split between customer type by institutional sector is around 64%-36% in favour of the private rather than public realm. We further estimate that these services contribute around 113 billion a year to the gross value added measure of UK output output net of spending on bought-in supplies and goods and services, essentially equal to the sum of wages and profits. That is just over 8½% of the total. In the process these activities directly support around 3.3 million jobs, equivalent to 10½% of all UK workforce jobs or 12¼% of the nation s employee jobs. Businesses in these sectors are likely to pay just under 14 billion a year to the UK exchequer in the three major business taxes, i.e. corporation tax, employers national insurance and business property rates (in relation to these outsourced activities alone). On top of this, their employees will pay something like 15 billion in income tax and employee NICs as a result of their earnings in connection with these activities. That makes for a total direct tax contribution, looking at these five major taxes only, of 28½ billion some 9½% of all government revenues from these sources. At the regional level, the share of outsourced jobs in total jobs varies between 7¼% and 13½%. This share is above the UK average in London, the South East, West Midlands and East of England. It is lowest in Wales and Northern Ireland. At the constituency level this ratio varies between 4% and 28%. 4

7 1 Introduction This report sets out updated estimates of the size of the UK outsourcing market, following on from an initial report concerned with this market published in April It also sets out estimates for the size of this market at the regional and parliamentary constituency level. As was the case for the 2011 report, at the national level this task involved estimating the turnover of firms operating in the various relevant markets based on available economic data, including the Annual Business Survey (ABS), National Accounts supply and use tables, other official datasets (covering e.g. public expenditure and sector output) and other research. Estimates of gross value added (GVA) 2, employment and UK tax contributions were then derived in turn. Estimates were then derived for the standard regions and countries of the UK, by allocating the national totals for turnover and GVA in proportion to the total values for the associated detailedlevel industries in the ABS. Employment was then allocated taking into account the relative productivity pattern indicated by other region-by-industry official datasets. The regional-level estimates in turn were then broken down into estimates for the Westminster parliamentary constituencies, based on detailed official employment data. 1.1 Definitions There is no single universally-accepted definition of outsourcing, but for the purposes of this report as in the 2011 report we define an outsourced activity as: The supply of services governed by an ongoing or time-specific agreement involving a degree of delegation of management responsibility, where that service would more typically be provided, or would in the past (UK 1950s-2000s) have been more typically provided, by an inhouse team of the customer themselves. The simple 'one-off' supply of a service would not, therefore, fall within this definition, and nor obviously would sales of private services to final household consumers. Traditional procurement business-to-business and business-to-government activities which have as a general rule always been provided by outside suppliers would also fall outside of the definition even where a longstanding relationship exists. Consequently, specialist business services such as legal and accounting work, and consultancy of a specialist or technical nature, would as a general rule fall outside of the definition. However, whether a service is counted as 'outsourced' will also depend in part on the nature of the client. Thus a specialist service that would not count as outsourced where the typical customer is a small or medium-sized firm might qualify as outsourced if typically provided to a large corporation on the grounds that those customers would in the past have typically undertaken 1 The size of the UK outsourcing market across the private and public sectors, Oxford Economics for the Business Services Association, April Gross value added (GVA) is essentially the same concept as gross domestic product (GDP), except that goods and services are valued at basic prices rather than market prices. The former measure is net of taxes on products such as VAT, whereas the latter measure is inclusive of them. 5

8 that activity in-house. A wide array of services provided by private entities to the government or to final consumers as part of a public service would also qualify as outsourced on the same grounds. 1.2 Comparability with the 2011 report The present report is based on data for the year 2010, whereas the previous report used data for We would caution that, although the definition of outsourcing used is in principle the same, the results should not be regarded as strictly comparable due to a few necessary changes in the statistical datasets and methodology employed. Most importantly, the availability of National Accounts supply and use tables on the up-to-date 2007 SIC classification thereby aligning with the sector classification used in Annual Business Survey has allowed for what we believe to be more accurate results. In isolated instances the results have also been affected by a reassessment in the light of newlyavailable data of the best methodology to use in order to arrive at particular sectoral results. In the sectoral analysis, the same breakdown is used as in the 2011 report, except that the property services / maintenance / cleaning category has been separated into property repair and maintenance and other property services including cleaning, to more clearly align with the SIC industrial classification system. 1.3 Report structure The remainder of this report is set out as follows: Chapter 2 sets out our conclusions on the overall size of the outsourcing market in the UK, in terms of annual turnover, gross value added and employment, together with the sector s contribution to key tax revenues. The tables in this chapter include a breakdown by industry of provider and by institutional sector (public or private) of the client. Chapter 3 summarises the results at a regional level, and highlights some key points relating to the breakdown at a parliamentary constituency level. Chapter 4 sets out how the results for turnover, GVA and employment at the national level were derived, looking at each sector in turn, together with a brief description of the methodology used to arrive at the regional and local level results. More detailed tables relating to the national and regional picture are included in the Annex, along with the top-level estimates for parliamentary constituencies. 6

9 2 The overall size of the UK outsourcing market In this Chapter we set out our key conclusions on the overall size of the outsourcing market in the UK, in terms of annual turnover and gross value added, together with the sector s contribution to UK employment and tax revenues. The methodology used to arrive at these results is set out in Chapter Estimates of total turnover Based on a range of data sources as detailed in Chapter 4, we estimate that turnover across all outsourced markets amounted to around 199 billion in 2010, equivalent to some 7.4% of economy-wide output. Table 2.1 sets out some detail in terms of service provided and institutional sector of the client. In terms of the latter, the split is around 64%-36% in favour of work for the private rather than public sector. Chart 2.1: Outsourced services share in UK output, 2010 Agriculture, extraction & energy 5.1% Manufacturing 16.2% Other activities 52.9% Wholesale & retail 10.2% Financial services 8.1% Outsourced activities 7.4% The 72 billion of provision to the public sector compares with total public sector procurement (of goods and services of all kinds) of billion in 2010/11 3, and an Oxford Economics estimate 4 that public sector procurement of services (including non-outsourced services but excluding goods) accounts for some 51½% of total procurement of goods and services across seven major public sector functions. The overall picture painted by these various estimates is one in which outsourced services for the public sector account for around three quarters of all public procurement of services (excluding goods), or approaching two fifths of total public sector procurement. But it should be noted that outsourced services for the private sector worth just over 126 billion are significantly more important still. 3 HM Treasury, PESA, April 2012, expenditure on services update, table 9. 4 Updated Oxford Economics estimates for the CBI, November 2010, following on from the January 2008 report The Market for Public Services in the UK. 7

10 Table 2.1: The size of the UK outsourcing market Public sector work Turnover Private sector work Total Public sector work Private sector work IT and data-related services Catering Combined facilities management Property repair & maintenance Other property services incl. cleaning Real estate management Security services Warehousing & storage Employment services Call centre operations Other office & admin support services Business consultancy Technical consultancy Waste management Public transport services Frontline educational services Frontline health services Residential care & social work Total As % economy-wide output Value added As % economy-wide value added Output here is the national accounts concept, which is essentially equal to the total value of sales by all UK-based producers of goods and services, plus the notional value of economic activity where no money changes hands. Value added (or gross value added, GVA) is equal to this measure of output minus the value of goods and services bought in from other suppliers. Both measures are at 'basic prices', i.e. net of taxes on products such as VAT. GVA is the same as gross domestic product (GDP) except that the latter is measured at 'market prices', i.e. before deducting taxes on products. GVA largely comprises employment costs and profits. Total Chart 2.2: Outsourced activity for the public and private sectors Annual gross value added: Total 113 billlion Public sector, 40 billion Private sector, 73 billion Annual turnover: Total 199 billion Public sector, 72 billion Private sector, 126 billion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8

11 2.2 Contribution to UK gross value added Table 2.1 also shows estimates of gross value added output net of spending on bought-in supplies of goods and services which is essentially equal to the sum of employment costs and profits. At around 113 billion, outsourcing work accounts for some 8.6% of economy-wide gross value added. The sector s share of value added is, therefore, somewhat higher than its share of total output, consistent with the ratio of bought-in goods and services to these companies own labour and capital input being lower than for other producers across the UK. This in turn will reflect these companies focus on tailored services as opposed to e.g. the manufacture and/or distribution of goods. Chart 2.3: Outsourced activity by type of service provided Annual turnover, billion Security services, 6.5 Other outsourcing, 22.0 Waste management, 6.1 IT & data-related, 38.7 Frontline health, 6.9 Combined facilities, 7.9 Cleaning / misc. property services, 8.7 Technical consultancy, 9.0 Office & admin support, 15.4 Care activities, 15.6 Property repair & maintenance, 28.1 Employment services, 33.9 Chart 2.4: Outsourced services share in UK gross value added, 2010 Agriculture, extraction & energy 4.6% Manufacturing 10.8% Wholesale & retail 11.2% Other activities 55.4% Financial services 9.4% Outsourced activities 8.6% 9

12 2.3 Contribution to UK employment Estimates of employment in the UK outsourcing sector can be worked out by looking at the ratio of employment to gross value added in the nearest sectors available, mainly from the Annual Business Survey but where necessary using other official data. On this basis we calculate that the UK outsourcing sector, as defined in this report, employs some 3.3 million individuals. That is equivalent to 10½% of all UK workforce jobs, or 12¼% of all employee jobs. Chart 2.5: Outsourced services share of UK workforce jobs, 2010 Agriculture, extraction & energy 2.0% Manufacturing 8.2% Wholesale & retail 15.3% Other activities 60.5% Financial services 3.6% Outsourced activities 10.5% The number of jobs directly dependent on outsourced UK activities could be put at some 740,000 in employment services, 470,000 in residential and social care activities, 460,000 in cleaning and miscellaneous property services, 320,000 in IT-related activities, 300,000 in property repair & maintenance, 190,000 in security services and 140,000 in miscellaneous office and administrative support services. Table A1 in the Annex sets out more detail by sector with an indication of how these estimates were arrived at. As Chart 2.6 shows, the total outsourced services sector is estimated to employ more individuals than the whole of manufacturing, and also more than financial services and public administration put together. In addition, jobs supported by the largest outsourcing sub-sectors as we have defined them compare well with those provided in high-profile industrial sectors such as mechanical engineering, chemical manufacture and motor vehicle manufacture, and with employment (including self-employment) across the whole of the agricultural sector. 10

13 Chart 2.6: Jobs in outsourced services and other selected sectors Total outsourced services Manufacturing Public administration Financial services Employment services Care activities Cleaning / misc. property services IT & data-related Property repair & maintenance Security services Office & admin support Agriculture Mechanical engineering Chemical manufacture Motor vehicle manufacture ,119 1,752 2,564 Thousands of jobs in outsourced service sectors Thousands of jobs in other selected sectors 3, Contribution to the exchequer Given the sector s contribution to value added and employment, we would expect it to make a significant contribution to the UK exchequer. Details of our estimates here are set out in Table A2 in the Annex. Looking at just three major business taxes corporation tax, employers national insurance contributions and business rates we would expect companies in this sector to have paid in the region of 13.6 billion in 2010 in relation to their outsourced activities. In addition, the firms employees will have paid in the region of 15.1 billion in income tax and employee national insurance in that year, relating to their earnings derived from these activities. That makes a total of 28.6 billion, equivalent to some 9½% of all revenues from these five taxes in To put this in context, if these taxes simply grew in line with money GDP between 2010 and the present fiscal year which would be a little below the expected rate of increase in total tax revenues then they would yield some 30.3 billion in 2012/13. That would be sufficient to match the planned spending totals for three key government departments combined, namely the Department for Transport, Home Office and Ministry of Justice. This does not of course include other taxes that might be paid by these firms in the course of their operations, other taxes generated as an indirect result of their activities, or other taxes paid by their employees. Taxes such as VAT, fuel duties, other excise duties and stamp duties also raise significant amounts, a proportion of which would relate directly or indirectly to firms operating in the outsourced services sector. 11

14 Chart 2.7: Sector tax contribution Sector's payment of five major taxes in 2010, 28.6 billion Employee NICs, 3.5 Plausible payment of these taxes in 2012/13, 30.3 billion Employee NICs, 3.7 Spending of three key Whitehall departments in 2012/13, 30.3 billion Ministry of Justice, 8.1 Employee income tax, 11.5 Employee income tax, 12.2 Home Office, 9.1 Business rates, 3.2 Business rates, 3.4 Employer NICs, 5.2 Employer NICs, 5.5 Department for Transport, 13.1 Corporation tax, 5.2 Corporation tax,

15 3 Regional and constituency-level estimates Estimates of turnover and GVA were derived for the standard regions and countries of the UK, by allocating the national totals in proportion to the total values for the associated detailed-level industries in the Annual Business Survey, with jobs then allocated by reference to relative productivity patterns indicated by other official region-by-industry datasets. These values in turn were then broken down into constituency-level figures, based on the detailed constituency-level employment data that is available. 3.1 Regional-level estimates Table 3.1 summarises how turnover and GVA would be allocated across the countries and regions of the UK if, as it is reasonable to assume, that allocation were in proportion to the distribution of these values for the associated industries at the detailed level across the nation. It also sets out our estimates of employment, calculated by reference to official indicators of GVA and jobs on a region-by-industry basis, and the associated shares of each regional economy accounted for by outsourced activity. More detail is set out in Table A3 in Annex 1. Table 3.1: The UK outsourcing market by region Outsourced turnover, billion Outsourced market activity Outsourced GVA, billion Associated employment, thousands Outsourced market activity as % of total regional economic activity Outsourced turnover as % total regional output Outsourced GVA as % total regional GVA Associated employment as % total regional workforce jobs North East North West Yorkshire and H East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Total UK , As both Table 3.1 and Chart 3.1 show, the share of gross value added in the wider regional economy is above the national average of 8.6% in the case of the South East, London, West Midlands and East of England, and just below the national average in the case of the North West. The share is lowest in Northern Ireland and Wales, though still above 5½%, while in the five remaining regions the share is in the 7-7½% range. 13

16 Although the importance of the outsourced sector to the wider economy does, therefore, vary to some degree from one region to the next, it should be noted that these differentials are not as great as in the case of some other important sectors of the UK economy. For example, the latest Regional Accounts dataset shows financial and insurance service activities accounting for around 10% of UK gross value added in total, but for just over 20% in the case of London, with the other eleven regions and countries of the UK in the 4¾-10¾% range. Chart 3.1: Outsourced contribution to value added by region Outsourced GVA as % total regional GVA South East London West Midlands East of England Total UK North West South West Scotland Yorkshire and H. East Midlands North East Wales Northern Ireland For shares in regional employment (Table 3.1 and Chart 3.2), the pattern is not surprisingly fairly similar, though with the UK average at 10.5% and a range around that of 7¼-13½%. Chart 3.2: Outsourced contribution to employment by region Outsourced employment as % total regional workforce jobs London 13.5 South East East of England West Midlands Total UK Scotland North West Yorkshire and H South West East Midlands North East Northern Ireland Wales

17 3.2 Constituency-level estimates Starting with the regional-level estimates and taking into account detailed employment data, estimates were then derived for the Westminster parliamentary constituencies (using the 2010 General Election boundaries), using the methodology described in Section 4.4. These results are set out in Table A4 in the Annex. The estimated share of outsourced economic activity in total local economic activity varies between 3% and 19½% in the case of turnover, between 3½% and 25% in the case of gross value added and between 4% and 28% in the case of jobs. We would stress that these estimates have been derived in a top-down manner from available official statistics concerned with total economic activity (outsourced and non-outsourced combined) by detailed industry. They can be regarded as giving a broad indication of the value of activity and associated number of jobs that could reasonably be expected to relate to outsourced work in each local area. They are not based on an actual count of outsourced work and should therefore be treated with a suitable degree of caution. 15

18 4 How the estimates are derived The basic methodology for arriving at our estimates of turnover was as follows: Step 1: Determine whether a sector or group of sectors is likely to include some activity that would be classified as outsourced on the definition used for this purposes, and take the turnover as reported for 2010 in the latest Annual Business Survey as the starting point. Step 2: Split that turnover into sales by customer type final households, overseas customers, UK business-to-business transactions, UK business-to-government transactions by assuming that it is split in proportion to total demand for the nearest corresponding product group as set out in the National Accounts input-output (supply and use) tables for Step 3: Determine which of these categories of transaction would include activity of an outsourced nature on our definition. In most but not all cases this would be UK businessto-business and business-to-government sales, as reflected in intermediate consumption 6. Step 4: Determine the proportion of sales within these categories to be counted as outsourced, based on judgement grounded in other research. 4.1 National level estimates of turnover by sector IT and data-related services: These activities were taken to correspond to sections 62 ( computer programming, consulting and related activities ) and 63.1 ( data processing, hosting and related activities; web portals ) in the ABS, with the remainder of section 63 ( information service activities ) excluded. Total turnover of these sectors in 2010 was 69.4 billion. In the input-output tables, section 62 alone had to be used to estimate the split by customer type. This yielded the following proportions: Intermediate consumption by public sector-type industries: 6%. Intermediate consumption by other industries: 50%. 5 Industry turnover is similar to industry output at basic prices (i.e. valued excluding sales taxes such as VAT). Demand in the input-output tables meanwhile covers domestic output of the corresponding product at market prices (i.e. including sales taxes), together with imports of the product. Domestic output of the industry can differ slightly from domestic output of the corresponding product, as output by industry is determined by allocating the total output of each individual business or business unit to a single industry, even where that output includes a smaller amount of other product types. In addition, in some cases the industry in the ABS used to provide the starting point for the turnover figure may be too refined to be replicated in the input-output table, requiring us to use a broader corresponding industry in order to estimate the split by customer type. Our estimates therefore involve several implicit assumptions and for this as well as other reasons should therefore be viewed as approximations. 6 Intermediate consumption in the input-output tables is broken down by industry of purchaser, rather than public and private sector purchasers as such. Sales to the public sector are therefore proxied in our estimates by sales to purchasers in the public administration and defence, education, health, residential care and social work industries. 16

19 Fixed investment: 36%. Exports: 8%. As in the 2011 exercise we decided to count as outsourced activity here all transactions relating to intermediate consumption (i.e. sales to business and government of services to be used up in those entities own production processes), and to exclude fixed investment and exports 7. Here, spending classified as fixed investment would of course also involve businessto-business and business-to-government transactions (plus possibly some imports), mainly or exclusively involving intangible investment (typically software development). These sales are however excluded from our measure of outsourced activity, on the grounds that it would never have been the norm for more complex activities of this type to have been undertaken in-house. Our consequent estimate for turnover relating to outsourced IT and data-related services is therefore 4.1 billion for public sector work and 38.7 billion for private sector work. This is slightly lower than the finding in the previous report, but reflecting an apparent drop in the proportion of sales allocated to intermediate consumption rather than any decline in the industry s overall turnover between 2009 and That apparent shift in the pattern of demand may or may not reflect the true change between 2009 and 2010, as in the previous exercise the split had to be based on that for demand in 2008 for a differently-defined computer services sector. Catering: Taking the wider catering industry to be section 56 in the ABS ( food and beverage service activities ), this sector s overall turnover amounted to 50.3 billion in According to the input output tables, demand for the precisely-corresponding product group was split in the following way: Intermediate consumption by public sector-type industries: 4%. Intermediate consumption by other industries: 9%. Final household consumption: 82%. Exports: 5%. Business-to-business and business-to-government transactions therefore account for only a relatively modest proportion of demand. Furthermore, by no means all of these transactions would be counted as outsourced. In the 2011 report, we used estimates derived from a survey of the food and management service industry published by British Hospitality Association 8 to arrive at estimates for We now calculate that this would have been consistent with 76% of business-to-government transactions being counted as outsourced, with a corresponding more modest figure of 36% for business-to-business transactions. Applying those same proportions to the 2010 sales totals by category of purchaser allows us to arrive at estimates of turnover for this report, these being 1.6 billion for public sector clients 7 Exports as well as imports are excluded from the definition of the UK outsourcing market for the purposes of this report, even though some of these transactions may be of an outsourced nature. 8 British Hospitality Association, Food and Service Management Survey

20 and 1.5 billion for private sector clients. These values are very close to those found in last year s study. Combined facilities management: The ABS shows turnover for this sector (81.1) to have been 8.0 billion in 2010, with the input-output tables showing demand for the broader services to buildings and landscape product category (81) split in the following proportions: Intermediate consumption by public sector-type industries: 20%. Intermediate consumption by other industries: 78%. Exports: 1%. On the basis that all intermediate consumption here should be counted as outsourced, we arrive at figures of 1.6 billion of work for the public sector and 6.3 billion for the private sector. The total is a little higher than the estimate set out in the previous report, reflecting the reported increase in turnover. The apparent shift in the share of activity devoted to the public rather than private sector may or may not be a reflection of the true picture, as in the previous exercise the pattern was based on that for the broader SIC 2003 other business services sector. Property repair and maintenance: For this report the previous very broad property services sector has been split between property repair and maintenance and other property services including cleaning. The former sector can be thought of as cutting across various activities within the specialised construction activities sector (43). Consequently, rather than using the ABS a better starting point for our estimate of turnover is the construction output dataset published regularly by the Office for National Statistics. This covers only the work of private sector firms classified as construction contractors, and therefore excludes work carried out by other companies on their own behalf (from utility companies and supermarkets to smaller operations with their own maintenance teams), as well as public sector directly-employed workforces. Consequently we count as outsourced the value of all repair and maintenance (R&M) work other than that relating to private sector housing i.e. R&M activity relating to public and privately-owned non-residential buildings and structures, plus public housing R&M work. In this dataset, housing R&M activity is split simply into work for the public and private sectors, but non-residential work is split into infrastructure, other private and other public. We therefore have to make an assumption, presuming here that 60% of infrastructure R&M work classified to contractors is for the private sector this assumption being made by reference to a now-discontinued dataset with a simple private / public split. On this basis, we arrive at a total of 28.1 billion of work in 2010, split 15.7 billion / 12.4 billion between the pubic and private sectors respectively. This is lower than the estimate for 2009 set out in the text of the previous report, of 29.9 billion and in this case the difference does seem to reflect a genuine decline in the value of work between 2009 and 2010, the official dataset now valuing this output at 30.2 billion in 2009, thereby pointing to a 7% decline between the two years. Other property services including cleaning: This category covers a wide range of activities for public bodies and businesses including, for example, textile services except where these activities are part of a wider more all-embracing set of on-site property services (e.g. catering, cleaning and security) in which case they would be covered by the combined facilities management category referred to above. 18

21 In the ABS this sector is taken as comprising sections ( general cleaning of buildings ), ( other building and industrial cleaning ) and 81.3 ( landscape service activities ). The other cleaning activities category (81.29) is excluded. These industries had a total turnover of 8.9 billion in Taking total demand for services of this nature to be split in line with the total for services to buildings and landscapes (as used for combined facilities management above), and again assuming that all intermediate consumption can be counted as outsourced, the result is 1.8 billion of outsourced work for public sector clients and 6.9 billion for the private sector. The total is slightly lower than in the previous report, reflecting a small decline in sector turnover in the ABS between 2009 and Within that, apparent work for the public sector is slightly higher than in the previous report, but we are unable to say whether that reflects a genuine change in that direction as the split in demand in the previous report had to be based on that for the old (SIC 2003) other business services sector. Real estate management: We assume here that only activities of the real estate activities on a fee or contract basis sector in the ABS (section 68.32) should be counted as potentially outsourced, thereby excluding real estate agencies (68.31) as well as buying and selling of own real estate (68.1) and renting and operating of own or leased real estate (68.2). This sector had a turnover in 2010 of 8.0 billion. The supply and use tables meanwhile show demand for section 68.3 as a whole to be split in the following proportions: Intermediate consumption by public sector-type industries: negligible. Intermediate consumption by other industries: 32%. Household consumption: 1%. Fixed investment: 65% (as the costs associated with the transfer of land and existing buildings are categorised in the national accounts as fixed investment). Exports: 2%. Counting all of the proportion classified as intermediate consumption as outsourced, but none of that counted as fixed investment, we estimate outsourced services in the real estate sector to be 2.6 billion, with the public sector s share of that being negligible. This is slightly higher than our estimate in the previous report. However, we cannot tell if this is reflects a genuine increase as it reflects an apparent increase in the share of intermediate demand in total demand sector turnover in the ABS actually declined a little between 2009 and And the former could, at least in part, reflect a change in sector classification between the 2003 and 2007 versions of the Standard Industrial Classification. Security services: Two industries measured in the Annual Business Survey are relevant here: private security activities (section 80.1) and security systems service activities (80.2). In 2010, turnover in these industries totalled 6.7 billion, while demand for the very slightly broader security and investigation activities sector (80) was split in the input-output table as follows: Intermediate consumption by public sector-type industries: 18%. Intermediate consumption by other industries: 79%. Household consumption: 1%. 19

22 Exports: 2%. Taking all intermediate consumption to be outsourced, on this basis we calculate that outsourced security service activity for the public sector was worth 1.2 billion in 2010, with that for the private sector worth some 5.3 billion. The total is slightly lower than in our previous report, with that for the public sector clearly lower but that for the private sector somewhat higher. In our last report, no split in demand for security services was available and we made a judgement based partly on the scaling up of other survey data. This time around, however, the inclusion of a specific security services category in the input-output tables has made a more accurate assessment possible. Warehousing and storage: In 2010 the turnover of this sector (section 52.1 in the ABS) was put at 11.0 billion, with demand for the exactly corresponding product group in the input-output tables split as follows: Intermediate demand by public sector-type industries: 1%. Intermediate demand by other industries: 87%. Household consumption: 3%. Exports: 9%. However, in line with our previous report we assume that only 30% of intermediate demand should count as outsourced activity. On this basis, outsourced activity in this area is estimated at 3.0 billion, with all except 0.1 billion of that relating to private sector clients. The result is similar to that last time, reflecting an actual increase in turnover between 2009 and 2010 and a small apparent reduction in the share of intermediate consumption. However, it is not clear that the latter reflects any true shift as we had previously had to base the split in demand on that for the broader SIC 2003 ancillary transport services sector. Employment services: In 2010, turnover of employment activities (section 78 in the ABS) amounted to 35.6 billion. Total demand for the exactly corresponding product group in the input-output tables in the same year was split as follows: Intermediate demand by public sector-type industries: 13%. Intermediate demand by other industries: 82%. Household consumption: 1%. Exports: 4%. On this basis we calculate that outsourced employment services activity was worth 4.7 billion in relation to public sector clients in that year and 29.2 billion in relation to the private sector. That is clearly more than the estimate set out in our previous report, partly reflecting a significant (16%) increase in actual turnover between 2009 and 2010 (following a 16% decline between 2008 and 2009), but also an apparent increase in the share of demand taken by intermediate consumption. However we now know that in the previous exercise that share was artificially depressed for this particular industry by the need to rely on the broader SIC 2003 other business services sector to calculate the split in demand by customer type. Call centre operations: In 2010, turnover of activities of call centres (section 82.2 in the ABS) amounted to 1.8 billion, while in the same year demand for the total office administrative, office support & other business support services (82) was split as follows: 20

23 Intermediate demand by public sector-type industries: 6%. Intermediate demand by other industries: 48%. Household consumption: 1%. Fixed investment: 2%. Exports: 43%. On the assumption that call centre work by customer category is split in line with this broader sector, and that all intermediate demand for call centre activities can count as outsourced work, the size of the outsourced call centre market in 2010 (for UK-based customers only) was around 1.1 billion 0.1 billion for the public sector and 1.0 billion for the private sector. That is slightly down on the previous estimate, despite a small increase in actual sector turnover between 2009 and This reflects the higher share of exports in demand for office administrative etc activities on the 2007 SIC basis, compared with the share in the broader other business services category on the 2003 basis (use in the last exercise), and so cannot be taken to indicate a true reduction in outsourced activity between 2009 and Other office and administrative support activities: This sector covers a wide range of activities, which we take to be sections 82.1 ( office administrative and support activities ) and 82.9 ( business support activities not elsewhere specified ) in the ABS. It therefore covers the whole of section 82, with the exception of call centre operations (82.2) estimated separately (see above), and organisation of conventions and trade shows (82.3) which we exclude. In 2010, turnover of these sectors totalled 28.7 billion. Taking the split in demand to be in line with that for section 82 as a whole (as for call centre operations above), we estimate the outsourced portion of this work to be worth some 1.8 billion for public sector clients and 13.7 billion for private sector customers. As with call centre operations, that is clearly lower than our previous estimate, despite a small increase in sector turnover between 2009 and 2010, for the same reasons. In summary, the availability of more refined input-output table data has allowed us to make a more accurate assessment than previously at the sector level. One result of this is a higher estimate for employment services, and lower estimates for call centre operations and other business support services, mainly reflecting a better understanding of the role of exports relative to UK demand across these activities. Business consultancy: In total, these activities (section 70.2 in the ABS) were worth some 41.1 billion in 2010, of which 1.7 billion was accounted for by public relations and communications activities (70.21) and the remainder by business and other management consultancy activities (70.22). We also know that demand for the very slightly wider product group activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (70) was split along the following lines in the same year: Intermediate demand by public sector-type industries: 4%. Intermediate demand by other industries: 86%. Fixed investment: 1%. Exports: 8%. 21

24 As last time, we assume that all intermediate consumption of public relations activities can be counted as outsourced, but that intermediate consumption of the remainder is split along the following lines: 80% basic services, of the kind that should not count as outsourced. 10% general outsourced consultancy, of the kind that should always count as outsourced. 10% specialist services, of the kind that should count as outsourced only when carried out for public sector clients. On this basis we estimate that outsourced business consultancy work was worth some 0.4 billion for public sector clients, and 4.9 billion for private sector clients, in That is down slightly on the previous estimate, reflecting three factors: a slight decline in actual recorded turnover for the sector between 2009 and 2010; an apparent slight increase in the share of exports and fixed investment 9 in total demand, at the expense of intermediate demand; and an apparent small decline in the share of work taken by the public sector (a greater proportion of which is expected to count as outsourced). The last two apparent shifts, however, could be as much a reflection of definitional changes as of a genuine change in the pattern in the last exercise demand had to be split in proportion with that for the wider SIC 2003 market research and management consultancy sector. Technical consultancy: This category (71 in the ABS) covers architectural activities, engineering and related technical consultancy, and technical testing and analysis. As in the last exercise, we count all business-to-government sales but only business-to-business transactions where the client is in the extraction, utility, construction, telecommunications, air transport or rail transport industries. In 2010, total turnover for providers of these services amounted to 45.1 billion, with demand for the precisely corresponding product group split as follows: Intermediate demand by public sector-type industries: 8%. Intermediate demand by extraction, utility, construction, telecommunications, air transport and rail transport industries: 12%. Intermediate demand by other industries: 56%. Household consumption: 1%. Fixed investment: 10%. Exports: 13%. On this basis, we estimate the value of this outsourced market to be some 9.0 billion, of which some 3.7 billion is with today s public sector-type industries and 5.3 billion with the private sector. This is slightly higher in total than last time, and more clearly higher in the case of the public sector, despite a very slight fall in sector turnover between 2009 and 2010 as reflected in the ABS. The shift therefore reflects an apparent increase in the proportion of intermediate demand by the industries deemed relevant, and most markedly in pubic sector-type industries. 9 This could be intangible investment relating to e.g. product innovation. As with IT services we assume that work of this nature should not count as outsourced on account of its specialised nature. 22