Nivesh Daily Currency

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1 Nivesh Daily Currency February 10, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR February Expiry Option Update Closing. Options Close % Chg OI % OI Prev. OI % CE CE CE CE PE PE PE PE Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is negative move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( 9 February 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: [email protected] 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( February Future) The Indian rupee depreciated for the third straight day Tuesday tracking overseas funds outflow from local equities on concerns over global economic slowdown, while bond yields rose for the second day on concerns over liquidity and debt oversupply. Technical Review USDINR retraced from the day high and tested before closing at levels. Near term trend is expect to remain negative unless pair give a closing above Today, correction is expected to come below the levels coincide with 161.8% Fibonacci Retracement of previous rally, else wait for rise towards Recommendation : LTP Sell below Target Stop loss Important Factor: U.S. Fed Chair Yellen Testifies EURINR ( February Future) Euro fell Tuesday after Germany's weak industrial production data and dismal trade data from euro-zone's largest economy increased fears of more stimulus from the European Central Bank ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before the Congress. Technical Review: EURINR remained volatile on Tuesday also and after witnessing a gap up opening at tested and settled at levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of Spinning top candle stick which is indicating for bullish trend reversal. Today, correction is expected to come on rise On the other hand, sustain and close above the previous swing high may extend positive move towards levels. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss Daily Important Factor from Europe: Italian Industrial Production m/m

3 GBP ( February Future) Pound traded flat Tuesday ahead of the UK's December trade balance data even as investors wait the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's congressional testimony set for later Wednesday. Technical Review: After hitting a high of , GBPINR witnessed pull down and settled at levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick which is indicating for indecisive move in days to come. Near term support is seen at and correction will expect to come below this levels only, else positive move likely to continue towards Recommendation : LTP Sell below Target Stop loss Important factor/data from U.K.: Manufacturing Production m/m JPYINR (February Future) Japanese Yen hits its lowest since November 2014 against the dollar as steep declines in global equity markets supported demand for safe-haven assets. USD/JPY hit lows of , a level not seen in 15 months, before pulling back to trade at , off 0.39% for the day. Technical Review JPYINR continued its bullish move for seventh consecutive day and settled with 1.02% gain. However gains was not sustainable and after hitting a high of JPYINR witnessed pull down towards before closing at Today, a break below only could extend the pull down towards Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell below Stop loss Target Important factor/data from Japan : PPI y/y

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier German industrial production dropped unexpectedly in December and exports were also down from November, a sign that Europe's largest economy ended 2015 on a weak note. German Industrial production, adjusted for seasonal swings and calendar effects, fell 1.2% from the preceding month, the economics ministry said Tuesday. U.K. country's goods trade deficit fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.92 billion from a deficit of billion in November. Economists had expected the goods trade deficit to narrow to 10.4 billion in December. U.S. Labor Department said that the number of job openings, excluding the farming industry, increased to million in December from million a month earlier. Analysts had expected the number of job openings to rise to million. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact All Day CNY Bank Holiday :15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.90% Positive 2:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.30% -0.50% Positive 3:00pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.00% -0.40% Positive GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.10% -0.70% Neutral 8:30pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate % - USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies :00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 7.8M - 11:31pm USD 10-y Bond Auction Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) [email protected] Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to [email protected]