Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years
|
|
- Susanna Briggs
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences September 30, 2013 In 2013, with the effects of slowly recovery in international economy and gradually improvement in external demand, the new government of China pays more attention to the quality of growth. According to our forecast, China s GDP will increase by 7.7% in 2013, equal to that of the previous year, continue to maintain a steady growth. In 2013, the growth rate of the tertiary industry will continue to be faster than that of the secondary industry. The three industries added value will increase by 3.8%, 7.8% and 8.4% respectively. The growth rate of the primary and the secondary industry will drop by 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points than those of the previous year, while the growth rate of the tertiary industry will increase by 0.3 percentage points than that of the previous year. The three industries will pull the increase of GDP by 0.3, 4.0 and 3.4 percentage points respectively. Compared to those of the previous year, the pull of the primary industry this year will decrease by 0.1 percentage points, the pull of the secondary industry will be the same while the pull of the tertiary industry will increases 0.3 percentage points. The contribution rates of the three industries to GDP are 4%, 52% and 44% respectively. The contribution rates of the primary and the secondary industries will decline by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points while the tertiary industry will increase by 0.7 percentage points. In 2013, the investment growth in manufacturing is significantly lower than that of the previous year while the investment growth in the tertiary industry and real estate development is higher than that of the previous year. Since the third quarter of the year 2013, the government has moderately increased the support to the investment in key areas and infrastructures. According to our forecast, the investment in fixed assets will exceed 45 trillion Yuan (excluding farmers) in 2013, with a nominal growth of 20.4%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous year; with an actual growth of 19.2%, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of the previous year. The investment in fixed assets will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth in In 2013, with a rapid growth in real estate sales and information consumption, stable growth in car sales and the effects of the government against wasting public fund, the total social retail sales of consumer goods in 2013 will reach 23.8 trillion Yuan according to our 1
2 forecast, with a nominal growth of 13.3%, 1.0 percentage point lower than that of the previous year. After eliminating the price factor, the actual growth rate will be 11.6%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, continue to maintain a steady growth. In 2013, the whole environment of international trade is slightly better than that of the previous year. The signs of American economic recovery are obvious: the employment continues to improve, the real estate market turned around, the composite index of manufacture rebounded. The Euro Area crisis eased to some extent. Japan has strengthened the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus. After considering the influence of different factors, such as continuous rise of costs of domestic resources and labor, RMB appreciation and so on, we forecast the growth rates of China s export and import will be 8.7% and 7.5% respectively in 2013, 0.8 and 3.2 percentage points higher than those of the previous year, annual trade surplus is US$273 billion or so, with an increase of $42 billion over the previous year. The ratio of trade surplus to GDP is about 2.7%, almost the same as the year In 2013, prices will increase modestly. First, CPI will be lower compared to carryover effect. The carryover effect is 1% in 2013, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the year The decrease of carryover effect will inhibit the rise of CPI to some extent. Second, from the perspective of the factors which cause a rise in price, the problem of domestic excess capacity is more prominent, the price is lack of continuing rising power in fundamentals. Third, from the sight of monetary supply, under the macro policy of Invigorating the stock, making full use of increment and the liquidity management by regulators, controlling the currency has become a basic policy orientation. According to our forecast, the consumer price index and investment goods price index will increase by 2.7% and 1.1% respectively, while the producer price index will decrease by 1.6%, these three prices indexes are all flat compared to the previous year. As in recent years, China's labor market has undergone structural changes, the actual growth rate of the net income per capita of China s rural residents in 2013 will continue to keep higher than that of urban residents since According to our forecast, the net income per capita of rural residents will increase by 9.5%, while the urban residents will increase by only 7.2%. In 2014, the global economy is expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend. The major developed economies may enter into recovery period but the recovery process is very slow, still need to be protected through policies and measures. Some uncertain factors may also have a negative impact on the economic recovery. As American private consumption gradually increased, household balance sheet gradually recovered, investment structure further optimized, technological transformation in traditional industries completed, macroeconomic fundamentals gradually tamped and under the push of new energy and new technology, America might enter into a new round of 2
3 economic growth period. The extent and course the FRB cutting QE3 depends on American domestic economic performance but in the short term there is still volatility and uncertainty in the related indexes. At the same time, the Congress of United States has not yet agreed to raise debt ceiling, so the American government will face financial risk. The Euro Area crisis eased in a way. The European Commission has formally authorized European Central Bank to supervise Euro Area bank industry since the middle of year This will promote the unification process of EU banking regulation and improve the assets and liabilities of Euro Area financial institution. It will make Euro Area financial market gradually stabilized and do good to enhance the confidence of consumers and investors. The EU economy may gradually stabilize and get rid of negative growth, but there is still a long way to go. Japan s economy recovered rapid growth recently, but the marginal effects of its quantitative easing policies are decreasing. Emerging markets and developing economies are still able to maintain relatively high growth rate but the growth momentum are obviously slowing down, the contribution rate to the recovery of the world economy decreases and partial fluctuation increases. Emerging market and developing economies should be cautious to deal with the potential external market risk and its financial risk. They also should actively seek international cooperation to avoid repeated economic crisis. In 2014, China is still in the important period of strategic opportunities. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee will make new deployment on comprehensively deepening reform, promoting institutional innovation. According to our forecast, China's GDP growth in 2014 is expected to increase by around 7.5%. China will continue to maintain a steady growth and the government will focus on promoting structural upgrading and innovation. In 2014, the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment will be 20.1%, the actual growth rate will be 18.5%, slightly lower than those in 2013, but still maintain high growth rate. The nominal and actual growth rates in total retail sales of social consumer goods will be 13.3% and 8.5% respectively, which remain a relatively stable growth. Exports and imports will increase by 9.1% and 8.5% respectively, which will be slightly higher than those in Overall, China's economy will continue to undergo steady growth, moderate inflation, basic balance in labor market and the international balance of payment. Table 1 lists the forecasting results of main economic indicators of national economy for the years In 2014, as long as the economy runs within the reasonable range, the government will keep the macroeconomic policy generally stable, and focus on shifting the growth model and on structural readjustment. In this connection, what is essential is to advance reform and innovation, tap potential domestic demand, and unleash innovation motivation and reform dividends in order to boost market vitality and the internal driving force for growth and 3
4 upgrade the Chinese economy. Table1. Main Indicators Forecasts of Chinese Economy for the Years Main Indicators Forecasts for Forecasts for Total Growth Rate of GDP(%) Industry Growth Rate of Added Value in Primary Industry(%) Growth Rate of Added Value in Secondary Industry(%) where: Growth Rate of Heavy Industry(%) Growth Rate of Light Industry(%) Growth Rate of Added Value in Tertiary Industry(%) the Pull of the Primary Industry to GDP Growth(percentage point) the Pull of the Secondary Industry to GDP Growth(percentage point) the Pull of the Tertiary Industry to GDP Growth(percentage point) Contribution Rate of the Primary Industry(%) Contribution Rate of the Secondary Industry(%) Contribution Rate of the Tertiary Industry(%) Investment Investment in All Social Fixed Assets(one hundred million Yuan) Nominal Growth Rate(%) Actual Growth Rate(%) Investment Rate of Expenditure-based(%) Consumption Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods(one hundred million Yuan) Nominal Growth Rate(%) Actual Growth Rate(%) Foreign Trade Total Exports(one hundred million dollars) Growth Rate of Export(%) Total Imports(one hundred million dollars) Growth Rate of Import(%) Trade Surplus(one hundred million dollars) Price Growth Rate of CPI(%) Growth Rate of PPI(%) Growth Rate of Investment Goods Price Index(%) GDP Deflator(%) Resident Income Growth Rate of Urban Residents Per Capita Disposable Income(%) Growth Rate of Rural Residents Per Capita Disposable Income(%) Fiscal 4
5 Fiscal Revenues(one hundred million Yuan) Growth Rate of Fiscal Revenues(%) Fiscal Expenditures(one hundred million Yuan) Growth Rate of Fiscal Expenditures(%) Finance Incremental Loan(one hundred million Yuan) Incremental Currency(one hundred million Yuan) Household Saving Deposits Balance(one hundred million Yuan) Growth rate of Household Saving Deposits Balance(%) M2(one hundred million Yuan) Growth Rate of M2(%) Total Loan Balance(one hundred million Yuan) Growth rate of Total Loan Balance(%) Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy(one hundred million Yuan)
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
More informationThe Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen,
The Money and Banking Conference Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Dr. Sergey Ignatiev Chairman of the Bank of Russia (The 4 th of June 2007, Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires) The Macroeconomic
More informationMonetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market
Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The
More informationEconomic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures
Provisional Translation Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures December 20th, 2004 Cabinet Approval 1. Main Economic Indicators for FY2004 and FY2005 Gross domestic
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationEuro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
More informationStatement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives
More informationOVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds
OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, January 3, 16. January 3, 16 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 16 (English translation prepared by the Bank's
More informationBANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September
More informationTaking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,
More informationThe U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms
The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference
More informationFurther Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges
Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges Zhang Ying, Senior Economist In recent years, as the internationalization of the RMB has been steadily carrying out,
More informationSection 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations
Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationTaipei - Economic Profile in 2008
The Market Profile of Taiwan Non-Life Insurance Industry in the year of 2008 Economic Profile in 2008 I. Economic situation (1) International economy In 2008, affected by extended USA credit crisis, the
More information5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis
5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationReport to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015
More informationFINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES. Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland
FINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland Financialisation Financialisation as a broad concept refers to: a) an
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationStatistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet
Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Introduction Since the outbreak of the credit crunch crisis in 2008, and the subsequent European debt crisis, it has become clear that there are large macroeconomic imbalances
More informationPERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT
PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank
More informationChapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1
Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1 Key Terms national income accounting: a system economists use to collect and organize macroeconomic statistics on production, income, investment,
More information2.5 Monetary policy: Interest rates
2.5 Monetary policy: Interest rates Learning Outcomes Describe the role of central banks as regulators of commercial banks and bankers to governments. Explain that central banks are usually made responsible
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q3 2014
UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More informationLatvia during the global economic and financial crisis
Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Second Japan Baltic Seminar 1 December 2009, Tokyo 1 Different experience behind, challenges ahead 15 10 5 Transition -56% in 1991-1993 GDP 1991-2012
More informationEconomic Outlook for Europe and Finland
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
More informationThe history of the Bank of Russia s exchange rate policy
The history of the Bank of Russia s exchange rate policy Central Bank of the Russian Federation Abstract During the post-soviet period of 1992 98, the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia was essentially
More informationMACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q1 2015
UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More information2013 Taiwan Life Insurance Market Overview I. Life Insurance Business and Financial Overview
2013 Taiwan Life Insurance Market Overview I. Life Insurance Business and Financial Overview 1. Business Statistical Overview In 2013, life insurers in Taiwan reported NTD2,583.5 billion in premium income,
More informationThe Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics
Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Professor Yamin Ahmad The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Supplemental Notes to Monetary
More informationJoint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast
More informationIV. Special feature: Foreign currency deposits of firms and individuals with banks in China
Robert N McCauley (+852) 2878 71 RMcCauley@bis.org.hk YK Mo (+852) 2878 71 IV. Special feature: deposits of firms and individuals with banks in China In principle, an economy with capital controls can
More informationEconomic Outlook 2009/2010
Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center
More informationEconomic Snapshot for February 2013
Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Christian E. Weller on the State of the Economy Christian E. Weller, associate professor, Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts
More informationUniversity of Lethbridge Department of Economics ECON 1012 Introduction to Macroeconomics Instructor: Michael G. Lanyi
University of Lethbridge Department of Economics ECON 1012 Introduction to Macroeconomics Instructor: Michael G. Lanyi CH 25 Exch Rate & BofP 1) Foreign currency is A) the market for foreign exchange.
More informationFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES Along with globalization has come a high degree of interdependence. Central to this is a flexible exchange rate system, where exchange rates are determined each business day by
More informationNew Monetary Policy Challenges
New Monetary Policy Challenges 63 Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2013, 1, pp. 63-67 Received: 5 December 2012; accepted: 4 January 2013 UDC: 336.74 Alexey V. Ulyukaev * New Monetary Policy
More informationNow, I would like to start the financial results presentation of our group for the six months ended September 2012. As usual, I will go over the
Now, I would like to start the financial results presentation of our group for the six months ended September 2012. As usual, I will go over the presentation material, followed by Q&A. Please turn to page
More informationCountry Report. To the. International Councils of Securities Associations
Country Report To the International Councils of Securities Associations The 13 th Annual General Meeting In Taipei, Taiwan April 17 19, 2000 Presented by The Chinese Securities Association 1. Economic
More informationECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) March, April, 2015 2014
ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) March, April, 2015 2014 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com Effects The of Reasons CNH Exchange Why the Rate Singapore on Offshore Economy RMB
More informationThe Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities
Manuel Sánchez Santander Global Fixed Income Summit London, England, September 20, 2012 Contents 1 Structural features 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Economic challenges
More informationDevelopment of consumer credit in China
Development of consumer credit in China Shen Bingxi and Yan Lijuan 1 Summary Consumer credit particularly personal consumer loans such as home mortgages and loans financing purchases of automobiles and
More informationExam 1 Review. 3. A severe recession is called a(n): A) depression. B) deflation. C) exogenous event. D) market-clearing assumption.
Exam 1 Review 1. Macroeconomics does not try to answer the question of: A) why do some countries experience rapid growth. B) what is the rate of return on education. C) why do some countries have high
More informationPROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions
PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017 Box 1 Projection assumptions Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 1. Introduction Projections
More informationTHE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research
THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research CONTENTS Causes background The crisis Consequences Role of economic policy Banking
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow
More informationPrices and Monetary Policy in Times of Rising Energy Prices
March 2008 Japan Financial Report No. 18 Prices and Monetary Policy in Times of Rising Energy Prices Monetary Policy Facing Treacherous Seas Risks Mount Mitsuhiro Fukao President, Japan Center for Economic
More informationNet sales Operating income Ordinary income Net income
MORITO CO., LTD. Financial Statement (Unaudited) For the Third Quarters of the Fiscal Year ended November 30, 2015 (Translated from the Japanese original) October 9, 2015 Corporate Information Code: 9837
More informationMonetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management
Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management People s Bank of China Abstract This paper touches on the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management. The first
More informationMACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS
MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected
More informationQ&A on tax relief for individuals & families
Q&A on tax relief for individuals & families A. Tax cuts individuals What are the new tax rates? The table below shows the new tax rates being rolled out from 1 October 2008, 1 April 2010 and 1 April 2011,
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Second Meeting October 9-10, 2015 Statement by the Honorable YI Gang, Alternate Governor, International Monetary Fund for China On behalf of People's
More informationForecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014
Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014
More informationChapter 12. Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run
Chapter 12. Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run Instructor: JINKOOK LEE Department of Economics / Texas A&M University ECON 203 502 Principles of Macroeconomics Aggregate Expenditure (AE)
More informationHARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium
HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium April 16, 2008 1250 S. Capital of Texas Highway Building 3, Suite 600 Austin, Texas 78746-6443 512-327-7200 Fax 512-327-8646
More informationMonetary and Financial Trends First Quarter 2011. Table of Contents
Financial Stability Directorate Monetary and Financial Trends First Quarter 2011 Table of Contents Highlights... 1 1. Monetary Aggregates... 3 2. Credit Developments... 4 3. Interest Rates... 7 4. Domestic
More informationSweden 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission Stockholm May 31, 2013
Sweden 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission Stockholm May 31, 2013 Sweden s economy performed well through the crisis, but growth has moderated recently 1. Growth has slowed
More informationEstonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationGrowth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments
Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments PineBridge Investments forecasts 2.7% GDP growth in the United States Eurozone growth projected to slightly improve
More informationDEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013 Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding
More informationInsurance market outlook
Munich Re Economic Research 2 May 2013 Global economic recovery provides stimulus to the insurance industry long-term perspective positive as well Once a year, MR Economic Research produces long-term forecasts
More informationEconomics 152 Solution to Sample Midterm 2
Economics 152 Solution to Sample Midterm 2 N. Das PART 1 (84 POINTS): Answer the following 28 multiple choice questions on the scan sheet. Each question is worth 3 points. 1. If Congress passes legislation
More informationRenminbi Exchange Rates and Relevant Institutional Factors Yi Gang
Renminbi Exchange Rates and Relevant Institutional Factors Yi Gang In recent years, China has experienced rapid social and economic development. Against this backdrop, growing pressure for renminbi appreciation
More informationList of legislative acts
List of legislative acts BRRd : d irective 2014/59/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 establishing a framework for the recovery and resolution of credit institutions and investment
More informationLIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
APRIL 2014 LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Most economists talk about where the economy is headed it s what they do. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an idea of
More information18th Year of Publication. A monthly publication from South Indian Bank. www.sib.co.in
To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community... Open YAccess www.sib.co.in ho2099@sib.co.in A monthly publication from South Indian Bank 18th Year of Publication SIB STUDENTS
More informationEFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook 3rd Quarter 2014 Offprint Economic Outlook Eurozone Global Economic Outlook 3rd Quarter 2014 Contents United States: A major first-quarter stumble, but future prospects remain undimmed
More informationIV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (40)
199Q1 1997Q1 1999Q1 21Q1 23Q1 2Q1 27Q1 29Q1 211Q1 213Q1 IV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (4) This section analyses the investment dynamics in the euro area since the global financial
More informationFinancial Status, Operating Results and Risk Management
Financial Status, Operating Results and Risk Management 87 Financial Status 88 89 90 90 90 95 95 Operating Results Cash Flow Effects of Major Capital Expenditures in the Most Recent Fiscal Year on Financial
More informationTHE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA
PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,
More informationMonetary Policy Report
Monetary Policy Report February 15 S V E R I G E S R I K S B A N K Correction 15--13 Two figures on page 3 were switched around in the previous version of the report. This meant that references to Figures
More informationWhy Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015
Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While
More informationPROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY
PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy
More informationIs U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low?
GLOBAL COMMENTARY July 22, 28 David Malpass 212-876-44 dmalpass@encimaglobal.com Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low? The front page of Sunday s New York Times highlighted the heavy household
More informationThird Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014
Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the
More informationThe challenge of Brazilian pension funds imposed by the international crises
Brazilian Economic Insights Nº. 68 August 3, 2009 The challenge of Brazilian pension funds imposed by the international crises By Adriana Inhudes, André Albuquerque Sant Anna, Ernani Teixeira Torres Filho
More informationState budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background
Public Debt Department State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background September 2014 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION Monthly issuance calendar... 2 MoF comment... 8 Rating agencies
More informationECONOMIC BULLETIN. June 2015
ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 Lisbon, 2015 www.bportugal.pt ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 1150-012 Lisboa www.bportugal.pt Edition Economics
More informationNaturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard:
REMARKS BY MR. JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN AN ADVERSE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSE, SANTANDER MEXICO DAY 2016, Mexico
More informationMonetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar
Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook
More informationStudy on Driving Force of Economic Growth in Beijing and Outlook on Prospect of Economic Growth during 11th Five-year Plan Period
Study on Driving Force of Economic Growth in Beijing and Outlook on Prospect of Economic Growth during 11th Five-year Plan Period Research Group Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics,China August 31,2006
More informationTaiwan Life Insurance Market Report for First Half of 2013
Taiwan Life Insurance Market Report for First Half of 2013 I. Life Insurance Financial and Business Overview A. Business Statistics and Overview In the first half of 2013, Taiwan life insurance companies
More informationThe U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.
Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the
More informationReport to the public of the discussions in the Bank of Israel prior to the setting of the interest rate for June 2006
Bank of Israel Report to the public of the discussions in the Bank of Israel prior to the setting of the interest rate for June 2006 The broad-forum discussion took place in the Bank of Israel on 24 May
More informationMacroeconomics Instructor Miller Fiscal Policy Practice Problems
Macroeconomics Instructor Miller Fiscal Policy Practice Problems 1. Fiscal policy refers to changes in A) state and local taxes and purchases that are intended to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives.
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More information2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market
March 2013 2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market Saira Malik, Head of Global Equity Research, TIAA-CREF Executive summary The outlook for equity markets is favorable
More informationNational Small Business Network
National Small Business Network WRITTEN STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD US SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS JOINT HEARING ON TAX REFORM AND THE TAX TREATMENT
More information2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
TTG WEALTH MANAGEMENT 2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 2015Q1 Core Asset Allocation Summary 1 2015Q1 Satellite Asset Allocation Summary 2 2014 Year-End Review 3 Investment Outlook for
More informationInvesting in a 3-D World
Investing in a 3-D World February 10, 2016 by Bill Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors Executive Summary Slowing growth and swelling corporate debt are expected to result in challenges in the coming quarters.
More information2. Current status and problems of US economy
2. Current status and problems of US economy The United States economy in 2010 moderately recovered backed by the global economic recovery and supported by the government s fiscal stimulus package and
More information(April 1, 2015 June 30, 2015)
Financial Results Summary of Consolidated Financial Results For the Three-month Period Ended June 30, 2015 (IFRS basis) (April 1, 2015 June 30, 2015) *This document is an English translation of materials
More informationThe Development Strategy and Innovation System in China
The Development Strategy and Innovation System in China Professor YANG Qiquan Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development MOSCOW Oct.1, 2009 Introduction: Although globalization has obtained
More informationMonetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes
Monetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) Abstract Increasing trade and financial flows between the world s countries has been a double-edged
More information