Inflation. Inflation increases. Monthly Inflation. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. April 16, 2014
|
|
- Crystal Wilkins
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 ly Inflation CPI inches up () 1 1 Components of CPI Particulars Weights CPI Food & bev Fuel & light Housing Clothing Miscellaneous WPI inflation up 102 bps () Components of WPI Particulars Weights WPI Primary Articles Fuel & Power Manuf.Goods Seasonal trend Particulars Weights CPI Food & bev Fuel & light Housing Clothing Miscellaneous WPI Primary Arti Fuel & Power Manuf.Goods Analyst s name Kajal Gandhi kajal.gandhi@icicisecurities.com Sheetal Ashar sheetal.ashar@icicisecurities.com April 16, 2014 Inflation CPI... up to 8.3 from 8.1 YoY WPI... up to 5.70 from 4.68 YoY Inflation increases Key readings Both CPI at 8.31 and WPI at 5.70 came in closer to market expectations moving up from 8.1 and 4.68, respectively While core CPI stayed firm at 7.8, core WPI got elevated to 3.5 from 3.1 in the previous month. Inflation in food component firmed up to ~9 both at the retail as well as wholesale level Seasonally, both the CPI and WPI indices rose ~0.5 after having declined for three consecutive months Core CPI moderates to 7.8 but seasonal trend of 0.5 increase intact Core CPI (weight: 40.8) slowed to 7.82 after having been sticky at 8. Transport (weight: 7.6) moderated to 5.89 leading to the moderation. Inflation in most other services has remained firm. Also, the seasonal trend of 0.50 increase has been intact Food and beverages inflation firmed up to 9.08 majorly led by 11 increase in milk (weight: 7.7) and 16 increase in price of cereals (weight 14.6). Concerns over El Niño affecting monsoons may prevent any sharper fall in food prices in the near months until more clarity emerges. Last time when the monsoon was affected food inflation had jumped to double digits CPI rural stood at 8.89 while CPI urban stood at 7.51 against 8.51 and 7.55 in the previous month Fuel and light inflation was sticky above 6 with housing near 10. Both components have not undergone any sizeable moderation While the higher base effect may bring headline CPI inflation readings lower, RBI has acknowledged it and said, It is critical to look through any transient effects, including these base effects, which could temporarily soften headline inflation during Hence seasonal trend will also need a close watch to clearly understand the price pressure Core and headline WPI both accelerate WPI inched up 102 bps to 5.70 as fuel & core inflation accelerated to & 3.23 vs. 8.7 & 2.76, respectively in the previous month Core WPI (weight: 55) got elevated on a waning high base. The recent fall in global commodity prices along with a stable rupee may provide some cushion However, the seasonal component of food article (weight: 14.34) may see some pressure as vegetable prices trough while fruits continue to become dearer. LPG prices were reduced ~13 in March last year, which led to adverse base in the fuel index (weight: 14.91) Inflationary concerns mount The RBI in its first bi-monthly policy said There are risks to the central forecast of 8 CPI January 2015 stemming from a less-than-normal monsoon due to possible El Nino effects; uncertainty on the setting of minimum support prices for agricultural commodities and setting of other administered prices, especially of fuel, fertiliser and electricity; the outlook for fiscal policy; geo-political developments and their impact on international commodity prices. We believe these concerns may keep inflation expectations high in the near term. Therefore, we do not anticipate any rate cut by the RBI until the first half of FY15. We expect WPI to average ~5.5-6
2 and CPI to average ~7-8 in FY15 on assumption of a normal monsoons and a gradual growth recovery. As long as CPI continues along the intended descending glide path of 8 CPI inflation by January 2015 and below 6 CPI by January 2016, further policy tightening in the near term is also not anticipated. Exhibit 1: Retail inflation down CPI inflation headed up as fruits and milk became dearer while vegetable price troughed The Urjit Patel Committee has indicated a glide path for disinflation that sets an objective of below 8 CPI inflation by January 2015 and below 6 CPI inflation by January Unless monsoon plays a spoilsport we may see CPI continuing on the glide path Combined Rural Urban Core CPI moderated to 7.8 but still remains high Exhibit 2: Components of CPI Wheat crop has been affected in three states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra on account of rain, hailstorm and wind as reported by the Agriculture Commissioner. Prices, therefore, may firm up till late April by which time the new produce reaches the markets. Cereals have a weightage of 14 in the CPI index. Hence, any increase may halt the moderation seen in food inflation According to the second Advance Estimates, India's Rabi crop food grain production is estimated at around 135 million tonnes (MT) during , which may not materialise due to uncertain rains. The Rabi crops foodgrain production may fall to 115 MT against estimates of 135 MT in Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding and footwear Core CPI Exhibit 3: CPI Inflation in services still high Core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) marginally slowed to 7.8 from 8.11 on account of a moderation in the transport and communication component Inflation in all other service likes education, medical care, personal care, etc. has remained firm Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Source: CSO, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 2
3 Exhibit 4: WPI inflation bottoms out Inflation surged across all major groups. Core inflation accelerated at a more rapid pace primarily on an unfavourable base WPI (LHS) Food Articles Manufactured Goods(LHS) Fuel Group Exhibit 5: Seasonal decline in veggies done Exhibit 6: Core inflation inches up on waning high base Vegetable Food Inflation Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Exhibit 7: LPG prices dropped in March-May last year leading to unfavourable base Jan-13 Fuel group Mineral Oils LPG Electricity Source: Bloomberg, CSO, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 8: Global commodity prices soften last month; give some cushion Core inflation Rupee Depreciation(LHS) IMF Metal Price Index Source: Bloomberg, IMF, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 3
4 Retail prices jumped an average 9.5 in FY14. Food inflation averaged 11 with core inflation at 8 WPI accelerated 102 bps at a pace which was higher than market expectation Seasonal decline in price of vegetables seems to have halted. However, fruits have become dearer by 16 YoY Further concerns over El Niño disrupting monsoon and thereby affecting crops may keep the food price decline in check Exhibit 9: CPI - Breakdown by components ( YoY ) Average Weights FY14 Cereals Pulses Oils&Fats Egg meat fish Milk condiments & spices Vegetables Fruits Sugar Non alcholic beverages Prepared meals Pan tobacco & intoxicants Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding footwear Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Miscellaneous CPI Core CPI Exhibit 10: WPI - Breakdown by components ( YoY ) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 WPI Primary Articles Fuel & Power Manufactured Goods Source: CSO,ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 11: Primary articles - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Primary Articles Food Articles Food Grains & Cerelas Rice Wheat Pulses Fruits & Vegetables Milk Eggs, Meat & Fish Spices Non-Food Articles Fibres Oil Seed Minerals Page 4
5 Exhibit 12: Fuel group - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Globally, oil prices are expected to decline due to an expected rise in non-opec supplies and possible recovery from outages in Opec nations. This should keep market determined fuel price lower Budgetary proposal with respect to fuel subsidies may be closely watched to determine the changes in administered fuel price. We expect a gradual increase in diesel price to continue Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Fuel Group Coal Mineral Oils Controlled Fuel : LPG Kerosene High Speed Diesel Market determined fuel : Petrol Aviation Turbine fuel Light Diesel Oil Bitumen Furnace Oil Lubricants Electricity The waning base effect may lead to higher reading of core inflation in the coming months. However, a lag effect of monetary tightening and a stable rupee may contain core inflation Exhibit 13: Manufactured goods - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Manufactured Goods Food Products Manufacturing Ex Food Beverages & Tobacco Textiles Wood & Wood Products Paper & Paper Products Leather & Leather Products Chemicals & Chemical Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Basic Metals Machinery & Machine Tools Transport, Equipment & Parts Page 5
6 Fruits became dearer by 5 along with vegetables after having seen a double digit correction in consecutive months and have now firmed up. This led to a pause in the seasonal decline in food articles inflation Exhibit 14: WPI month on month () Weights WPI Primary Articles Food Articles Non-Food Articles Minerals Fuel & Power Coal Mineral Oils Electricity Maufactured Products Food Products Mfg.Products (Ex food) Beverages & Tobacco Textiles Wood & Wood Products Paper & Paper Products Leather & Leather Products Chemicals & Chemical Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Basic Metals Machinery & Machine Tools Transport, Equipment & Parts Seasonal trend of 0.50 increase in the core CPI remains intact Exhibit 15: CPI month on month () Weights CPI Cereals Pulses Oils&Fats Egg meat fish Milk condiments & spices Vegetables Fruits Sugar Non alcholic beverages Prepared meals Pan tobacco & intoxicants Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding footwear Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Miscellaneous Core CPI Page 6
7 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai Disclaimer The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. I-Sec may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. I- Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. I-Sec may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 7
Graphite Electrodes. Imposition of antidumping duty augurs well. Sector Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research.
Sector Update Rating matrix Target price Company Old New CMP Potential Upside HEG 225 275 238 19% Graphite India 85 15 91 18% Target period 12-15 months Price performance (%) Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M HEG
More informationQuant Picks United Breweries
October 6, 2015 Quant Picks United Breweries Research Analyst Amit Gupta amit.gup@icicisecurities.com Raj Deepak Singh rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com Azeem Ahmad azeem.ahmad@icicisecurities.com i
More informationGujarat State Petronet Ltd. INR 135
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 India Equity Institutional Research Oil & Gas RESULT UPDATE Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. INR 135 Growth in volumes to propel earnings Accumulate Gujarat
More informationConsumer Price Developments in July 2015
sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in July 2015 CPI-All Items inflation eased to -0.4% y-o-y in July CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.4% in July compared to -0.3% in June, mainly due to the lower
More informationConsumer Price Developments in January 2016
sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in January 2016 CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January CPI-All Items inflation was -0.6% in January, unchanged from that in December.
More informationConsumer Price Developments in May 2016
sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in May 2016 CPI-All Items fell by 1.6% in May, compared to the 0.5% decline in April, mostly due to base effects associated with the timing of the disbursement of
More informationResearch Analysts. June 30, 2016. Lupin LUPIN Buy in the range of 1520.00-1550.00 1770.00 1388.00
Stocks on the move Scrip IDi I-Direct tcode Action Target Stoploss Lupin LUPIN Buy in the range of 1520.00-1550.00 1770.00 1388.00 Time Frame: 3 Months Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
More informationResearch Analysts. September 30, 2015
Stocks on the move Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Hitachi Home and Life Solutions AMTAPP Buy in the range of 1380.00-1400.00 1640.00 1280.00 Time Frame: 3 Months Research Analysts Dharmesh
More informationConsumer Price Developments in December 2015
sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in December 2015 CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% in December, compared to -0.8%
More informationResearch Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk
Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it
More informationResearch Analysts. Granules GRANUL Buy in the range of 142.00-146.00 168.00 133.00 EID Parry EIDPAR Buy in the range of 128.00-134.00 170.00 121.
Stocks on the move Scrip IDi I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Granules GRANUL Buy in the range of 142.00-146.00 168.00 133.00 EID Parry EIDPAR Buy in the range of 128.00-134.00 170.00 121.00 Time Frame:
More informationGladiator Stocks: Phillips Carbon Black (PHICAR) Time Frame: Six months
Gladiator Stocks: Phillips Carbon Black (PHICAR) Time Frame: Six months CMP: 160.00 00 Buying Range: 155.00-160.00 160 Target: 196.00 Stop loss: 137.00 Upside: 25% Stock Data 52 Week High / Low 162.95/80
More informationShares as Margin (SAM) Investments on Your Fingertips
Shares as Margin (SAM) Contents: What are the needs of investors/traders? What is Shares as Margin (SAM)? What are the benefits of Shares as Margin (SAM)? Why choose Shares as Margin (SAM)? How can Shares
More informationInflation in the East African Community
Annual headline inflation (%) Headline inflation (%) Inflation in the East African Community January 211 1. Introduction After seven consecutive quarters of declining inflation, prices in the EAC region
More informationThird Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014
Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the
More informationDebt Market Outlook - 2015
Debt Market Outlook - 2015 DEBT MARKET PERFORMANCE IN 2014 The Indian bond market saw a sharp rally in H2 of CY 14, inspite of absence of rate cuts. The bond market rallied due to the following factors.
More informationGAIL (India) Ltd. INR 346
Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 India Equity Institutional Research Oil & Gas RESULT UPDATE GAIL (India) Ltd. INR 346 Good performance; Near term outlook looks stable BUY GAIL reported
More informationwww.indiaforex.in REER NEER India Forex Advisors IFA Classroom: Understanding NEER and REER Dated- 14 th August, 2014
The exchange rate is the weighted average value of a country's currency relative to all major currencies being traded within an index or pool of currencies. There are two exchange rate regimes: NEER (Nominal
More informationMonthly Strategy. August 13, 2012 July 8, 2015. 13 August 2012
Monthly Strategy Monthly Monthly Strategy Strategy August 13, 212 July 8, 215 13 August 212 Monthly Strategy Monthly Monthly Strategy Strategy Table of Content July 8, 215 House View... 2 Global economy
More informationBusiness and Agricultural Loans
Business and Agricultural Loans Business Loan Proposals Fund based business requirements. Non fund based business requirement. Classification of Loans based on Loan Pricing Sub-PLR (Prime Lending Rate)
More informationOctober 1, 2015. Contents. 1. Recap. 2. Physical Market Rates. 3. Arrivals. 4. Weather. 5. Charts and Outlook. 6. Disclaimer
Contents 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1 Recap Indian markets NCDEX Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soybean OCT5 3450
More informationCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 1 st quarter 2008 1. Introduction This issue of Economic and Social Indicators presents the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the first quarter of 2008. A new CPI series, based on
More informationResearch Analysts. April 8, 2016. West Coast Paper Mills WESCOA Buy in the range of 75-78 96.00 68.00
Stocks on the move Scrip IDi I-Direct tcode Action Target Stoploss West Coast Paper Mills WESCOA Buy in the range of 75-78 96.00 68.00 Time Frame: 3 Months Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
More informationgrowing sources of employment in the country. In
SRI LANKA 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Fig. 1: Employment by Major Economic Activity ('000s), 2002-2008 Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Mining and Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotels and Restaurants Agriculture,
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index January 2009 Embargoed until: 25 February 2009 11:30 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date User information services February 2009 25 March 2009 Tel:
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index September 2009 Embargoed until: 28 October 2009 11:30 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date User information services October 2009 25 November 2009
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index May 2015 Embargoed until: 17 June 2015 10:00 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date Marietjie Bennett / Anita Voges June 2015 22 July 2015 (012) 310
More informationFirst Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015
First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning
More informationBright Smart (1428 HK)
Equity Research Financials Bright Smart (1428 ) Hold (initiation) Target price: $1.70 Local broker with high ROE; initiate at Hold Local broker with expansion ambition Bright Smart is a securities, commodities
More informationThird Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015
Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 21 August 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the
More informationKhambatta Securities Ltd.
Attractive Valuation Strong Buy Sector : Bank Private Target Price : Rs 284 Current Market Price : Rs 230 Market Cap : Rs 1,337 bn 52-week High/Low : Rs 393/216 Daily Avg. Volume : 13.88 mn Shares in issue
More informationConsumer Price Index Numbers - Separately for Rural and Urban Areas and also Combined (Rural plus Urban)
Consumer Price Index Numbers - Separately for Rural and Urban Areas and also Combined (Rural plus Urban) Central Statistics Office Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Government of India
More informationEnergy Daily. Energy Daily Outlook. Market Commentary. Daily Close Price Changes
Energy Daily Energy Daily 22 October 2015 Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Daily Close Price Changes Product (NYMEX) 21-Oct 1d chg % Change WTI Dec'15 45.2-1.09-2.4%
More informationEIOPA Risk Dashboard September 2014 Q2 2014 data EIOPA-FS-14/083
EIOPA Risk Dashboard September 2014 Q2 2014 data EIOPA-FS-14/083 17 September 2014 Summary This release of the EIOPA Risk Dashboard is based on 2014- Q2 indicators submitted on a best efforts basis The
More informationWhy ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group
Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index January 2014 Embargoed until: 19 February 2014 10:00 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date Marietjie Bennett / Anita Voges February 2014 19 March
More informationQ1 2016. Qatar Quarterly Monitor
Q1 216 Qatar Quarterly Monitor Asiya Research at a glance 2 Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. 2) Analysis of all countries in Asia and GCC, and some key industrialized economies. 3) Trading
More informationA review of agricultural and monsoon conditions
For the past 2 years India has experienced drought like conditions. This year the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that there will above normal monsoon. If monsoons this year are good,
More informationEconomic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015
Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%
More information21 - MINING. 42 0.87% 221 Utilities 42 0.87% 6,152 0.68 23 - CONSTRUCTION
Total of State, Local Government and Private Sector 11 - AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING & HUNTING 21 - MINING 4,824 71 1.47% 111 Crop Production 24 0.50% 2,754 0.87 112 Animal Production 35 0.73% 5,402
More informationThe 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis
1. Introduction The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties Tassos Haniotis Director of Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations; Communication DG Agriculture and Rural
More informationGlobal Economic Indicators: Japan CPI
Global Economic Indicators: Japan CPI June, Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-78 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8-- djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
More informationEbola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak and Price Dynamics in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
Vol. 1, No. 4, 9 November 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak and Price Dynamics in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone Ebola, through its impact on prices, is reducing people s purchasing power and is
More informationEconomic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015
Economic Data September 18, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Minutes EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 22.6B 21.3B 25.4B CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% CAD CPI Y/Y Aug
More informationResearch US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency 15 July, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 67.03-0.25 0.67 1.93 67.1517 67.0583 66.9167 URINR 74.60 0.34-1.43
More information3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum
3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the
More informationEnergy Daily. Energy Daily Outlook. Market Commentary. Daily Close Price Changes
Energy Daily Energy Daily 07 January 2016 Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Daily Close Price Changes Product (NYMEX) 6-Jan 1d chg % Change WTI Feb'16 33.97-2 -5.9%
More informationCommodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness
Commodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness Commodities continued to show weakness into the second week of 2013 despite rising stock markets and a falling US dollar. Investors are generally
More informationBritannia Industries
Rally in Input costs near term drag, Maintain BUY June 20, 2016 Amnish Aggarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com +91 22 66322233 Gaurav Jogani gauravjogani@plindia.com +91 22 66322238 Rating BUY Price Rs2,641
More informationContents (Click on the topics)
Contents (Click on the topics) 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1 Recap Indian markets NCDEX % Vol. Previous Close Open High Low % Volume Soybean
More informationImproved US data halts gold while supporting oil
Improved US data halts gold while supporting oil The first week of the last quarter brought a host of important economic data culminating with the US unemployment report which turned out to be better than
More informationRussia: Where to find new growth drivers?
Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Sanna Kurronen Economist +38 4 68 369 sanna.kurronen@danskebank.com 14 February 213 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page of this report.
More informationWHAT IS THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX?
INTRODUCTION The Consumer Price Index, commonly referred to as the CPI, is one of the most used of the statistical series produced by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). In its many applications,
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index November 2015 Embargoed until: 9 December 2015 10:00 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date Marietjie Bennett / Anita Voges December 2015 20 January
More informationANALYSIS OF LEBANON S FOOD MARKET
ANALYSIS OF LEBANON S FOOD MARKET Table of Contents World Food Market 3 Lebanon s Food Production 8 Lebanon s Food Imports and Exports 11 Evolution of Food Imports 11 Food Imports by Type 12 Food Imports
More informationWorld Manufacturing Production
Quarterly Report World Manufacturing Production Statistics for Quarter III, 2013 Statistics Unit www.unido.org/statistics Report on world manufacturing production, Quarter III, 2013 UNIDO Statistics presents
More informationCapital Expenditure of Corporates: FY09-FY14
September 24, 2014 Economics RBI recently releaseda study on corporate investments which provides a picture on the envisaged capital expenditure (investment in fixed assets) of companies from the private
More informationStatistical release P0141
Statistical release Consumer Price Index August 2015 Embargoed until: 23 September 2015 10:00 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date Marietjie Bennett / Anita Voges September 2015 21 October
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of
More informationpercentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationMACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial
More information2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS
2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS -3% -8% Financial and Operational Highlights Operational Revenue mntl (1) Ancillary Revenue/Pax Load Factor 29% 16% 13% 22% TRY mn 2.38 4,7 TRY mn 3.08 1,7 TRYm n 569,3 TRYm n 661,9
More informationWorld Manufacturing Production
Quarterly Report World Manufacturing Production Statistics for Quarter IV, 2013 Statistics Unit www.unido.org/statistics Report on world manufacturing production, Quarter IV, 2013 UNIDO Statistics presents
More informationFederal Bank (FEDBAN) 50
Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Sell Target : 45 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : -10% What s Changed? Target Changed from 60 to 45 EPS Changed from 4.7 to 4.0 EPS Changed from 5.4 to
More informationCIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016
CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:
More informationDAILY COMMODITY TECHNICAL
DAILY COMMODITY TECHNICAL Trade Strategies Navin Nair navin.nair@emkayglobal.com 022-6624-2386 Commodity Trading Strategies for the day Commodity Strategy Levels Target Stop-Loss Precious Metals Gold Dec
More informationPresented by D. R. Khanal Chairman Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRAD)
Work in Progress Construction of GTAP Compatible Input Output (I/O) Table and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with Limited Data Base : Nepalese Experience Presented by D. R. Khanal Chairman Institute for
More informationHPCL CMP: INR288 TP: INR Buy
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR288 TP: INR Buy 17,831 5,412 Bloomberg HPCL IN Equity Shares (m) 339.0 52-Week Range (INR) 420/239 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) 7/-31/-16 M.Cap. (INR b) 97.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 2.0 10 February
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationSBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS. March 2015
SBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS 2014 March 2015 SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE FOR 2014 STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS Net profit reached RUB 290.3bn (or RUB 13.45 per ordinary share), compared to RUB 362.0bn (or RUB
More informationOil Price and Korean Economy
Oil Price and Korean Economy April 17, 2015 Jaerang Lee - Contents - I. Oil Price Outlook II. Effects on Korean Economy III. Conclusion I. Oil Price Outlook Oil prices have lowered to around mid 50 dollars
More informationCinda International. Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55. Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold
Equity Research Financials Cinda (111 HK) Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55 Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold China Cinda s international business platform Cinda
More informationOverall index Monthly change Change over last Annual change
15 2015 Consumer Price Index (CPI). Base 2011 November 2015 all index Monthly change Change over last Annual change November 0.4 0.3 0.3 Main results The annual change of the CPI for the of November stands
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationAn analysis of the drivers behind the fall in direct investment earnings and their impact on the UK's current account deficit
Article An analysis of the drivers behind the fall in direct investment earnings and their impact on the UK's current account deficit The UK current account deficit continued to widen in 2015, marking
More informationCountry trade view Italy. Trends in global trade
Country trade view Italy Trends in global trade Summary Italy is a significant player in world trade. In 2014, it was the eleventh-largest importer and the ninth-largest exporter in the world. Italy comprises
More informationEconomic Outlook: Poland
Economic Outlook: Poland June 2012 Global Economic Research (SQEE) Nora Wassermann, Research Analyst Phone +4144 333 57 41 Nora.wassermann@credit-suisse.com Size of the economy Source: Datastream, Credit
More informationMACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT 2016-17
1 Overview of the economy MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT 2016-17 The Indian economy has emerged as a bright spot in the world economy, becoming one of the fastest growing large economies in the world.
More informationOil prices tumble as speculative bubble burst
Oil prices tumble as speculative bubble burst The financial and sovereign debt crisis continues to set the agenda for almost every investment decision being taken at the moment. During May the crisis in
More informationA Study on Inflation in India
International Research Journal of Social Sciences ISSN 2319 3565 A Study on Inflation in India R.V.S.S., Nagabhushana Rao 1, P. Chenchu Reddy 2, A.M. Mahaboob Basha 2, P. Srinivasulu 3 and K. Sai Pranav
More informationDRAFT. All NAICS. 3-Digit NAICS BP C 3 P 76 X 0 BP C 0 P 0 X 2 OC C 29 P 44 X 35 OC C 0 P 0 X 2 MH C 96 MH C 8 P 37 X 62 P 1107 X 587
All NAICS 3-Digit NAICS BP C 3 P 76 X 0 OC C 29 P 44 X 35 MH C 96 P 1107 X 587 BP C 0 P 0 X 2 OC C 0 P 0 X 2 MH C 8 P 37 X 62 ML C 66 P 958 X 772 ML C 4 P 34 X 69 A. Resource Uses. 11 Agriculture, Forestry,
More informationNorth American Energy Independence A bump in the road
Wealth Management Research October 2015 A bump in the road Nicole Decker Equity Sector Strategist, Energy This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services, Inc. Please see important disclaimers
More informationWFP SOUTH SUDAN MARKET PRICE MONITORING BULLETIN
September 15 HIGHLIGHTS The exchange rate of SSP against the US dollar has reached an all-time low of.3 SSP to 1 US Dollar during the month of September driven by acute shortage of hard currency. This
More informationEconomic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015
Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade
More informationBond markets vote for global recovery
Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global
More informationBanking. July 25, 2014
July 25, 2014 Banking BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY FY14 Our study covers 39 banks 26 Public Sector Banks & 13 Private Sector Banks. Foreword The in the Indian economy continued to be moderate in FY14
More informationEuropean Freight Forwarding Index
European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12
More informationIndia's Foreign Trade Statistics
India's Foreign Trade Statistics Each country tries to increase the availability of goods and services to its people through purchase from other countries. Similarly it tries to sell its surplus production
More informationKingdee (268 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$3.58. Solidifying leadership in cloud services; maintain Buy but revise TP down to HK$3.
Equity Research Information Technology Aug 2, 21 Kingdee (28 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$.8 Solidifying leadership in cloud services; maintain Buy but revise TP down to HK$.8 Lower-than-expected
More informationOverall index Monthly change Change over last Annual change
13 August 2014 Consumer Price Index (CPI). Base 2011 July 2014 all index Monthly change Change over last Annual change July 0.9 1.2 0.3 Main results The annual change of the CPI for the of July stands
More informationMarket Monitor Number 3 November 2012
Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In
More information5. Price and Wage Developments
. Price and Wage Developments Recent Developments in Inflation Inflation rose in the December quarter, following a low September quarter outcome (Table.; Graph.). Indicators of underlying inflation increased
More informationGuide to managing commodity risk
Guide to managing commodity risk October 2012 ISBN: 978-1-921742-33-0 CPA Australia Ltd ( CPA Australia ) is one of the world s largest accounting bodies representing more than 139,000 members of the financial,
More informationSupplier Diversity Program. Ensure a diversity of small businesses work with the Smithsonian to accomplish the Institution s mission.
SDP Goals Supplier Diversity Program Ensure a diversity of small businesses work with the Smithsonian to accomplish the Institution s mission. Accomplish success through each museum, research institute
More informationAfghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12 126
Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12 126 Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12 127 Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12 128 Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12 129 Million Afs Sector 1390
More informationInstallation. Getting Started
2 Installation Getting Started Supported by Internet Explorer 6 and above Silverlight Application Free Download Works on all Windows OS Self explanatory process to Install Silverlight Link- https://ria.icicidirect.com
More informationCorporate and Investment Banking. Standard Bank Africa Commodity Index Exchange Traded Note
Corporate and Investment Banking Standard Bank Africa Commodity Index Exchange Traded Note Introduction to Commodities as an Asset Class 2 The Standard Bank Africa Commodity Index 4 Standard Bank s Blue
More informationSenior Loan Officer Survey 2015 Q4
21 November 215 Banking Sector Analysis Senior Loan Officer Survey 215 Q4 Filip Blazheski Not a lot of change and positive on the whole C&I and CRE loan demand still growing, but lending standards might
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Selling pressures are still strong. EUR/USD
More information