Market Validation. 10% of the expected cost of developing the product. Two day triage of your idea to determine if more time and effort is required.

Transcription

1 Market Validation 1. Definition Market Validation is a process applied to the unstructured, serendipitous task of doing a complete evaluation of the market for a product before the product is built. Rob Adams, If You Build It Will They Come? 2. Time and Cost Time: Cost: 60 days 10% of the expected cost of developing the product 3. Philosophy Fail fast by testing whether your proposed product/service will work in the market before you build/create it. 4. The Process The World in Three Stages A. Ready Two day triage of your idea to determine if more time and effort is required. B. Aim This 60 day process uses primary research to develop a product with unique, differentiating features that will compel customers to purchase. C. Fire There is no time limit associated with this stage but it needs to be accomplished as soon as possible to take advantage of the identified opportunity. It is dependent on management s ability to take the market data collected and turn it into product features that allow the product/service to be quickly shipped. 1 P a g e

2 5. Stage 1 - Ready (2 Days) This stage involves extensive use of secondary research about the market from standard industry publications and analyst reports from the major brokerage houses and major players in the overall market. This research can also involve industry specific reports prepared by third party consulting firms that are available for sale. Primary research using a convenience sample of identified potential customers can also be used especially if the underlying concept is based on the work experience of the lead entrepreneur. The purpose of this stage is to quickly identify if there is sufficient cause in terms the available opportunity to undertake an in-depth analysis under Stage 2 Aim. A. Topics to Cover a. Domain Knowledge b. Market size and growth rate c. Lifecycles and trends d. Competitive analysis e. External data sources B. Domain Knowledge a. Describe how you developed the basic function of your proposed product or service b. Discuss if the proposed product or service is based on your work/job experience or c. Discuss if the proposed product or service is based on your experience as a consumer d. Demonstrate that you understand what it takes to make money in your proposed sector in terms of target market size, sales volume and margins keeping in mind that: i. Consumer goods are expensive to market and have tight margins ii. Medical and IT, high gross margins do not necessarily lead to success iii. Large markets do not always lend themselves to large sales C. Market Size and Growth Rate a. What is the size of the overall market in both dollar and number of customers? b. What are the sub-markets? How did you determine these sub-markets? c. What are the sizes of these sub-markets in dollar terms and number of customers? d. What is the growth rate of the overall market? Each of the identified sub-markets? e. Which sub-market are you attempting to reach? Why did you select this market? f. What is the growth rate of the overall market? g. Is your sub-market growing above, at or below the overall market? h. Is this growth rate expected to increase, hold steady or decrease over the next five years? How did you establish this fact? 2 P a g e

3 D. Lifecycles and Trends a. What is the lifecycle of the proposed market in years? b. At what stage is the market currently at Innovator, Early Adopter, Late Adopter, etc? c. What are the key external trends impacting your market? i. Population ii. Expanding and contracting industry sectors iii. Technology adoption iv. Competition d. What is the primary business model used by the industry? How was this model identified? i. Consumer ii. Manufacturing iii. Life Sciences iv. Technology v. Services E. Competitive Analysis a. According to potential customers, who are the competitors? b. According to potential customers, why are these competitors successful? c. According to the competitors customers, what do they do best? Where do they need to improve? d. According to potential customers, what are other potential substitutes for your product/service? e. From a potential customer s perspective, what are the economics involved in using the proposed product? This should consider the payback period involved and the total cost of ownership that includes any modifications to the facility or operations the customer will have to make. Typically customers expect a payback period of 12 months or less and don t like having to make changes to their physical plant or operations. f. Provide an indication of how much effort is involved in getting the customer to part with their money, i.e. beating the do nothing competitor. One way to accomplish this is to reference the last time the industry adopted a new innovation and the issues and time involved in introducing this innovation. F. External Sources of Data a. Do any analysts from the major brokerage houses cover the market? b. If yes, who are they? What firms do they work for? c. According to these analysts, what is the estimated size of the market in terms of dollars and customers? d. What are the major trends these analysts have identified in your proposed market? How do these compare with the trends you ve identified? 3 P a g e

4 e. If not, why not? Is the market not mature enough to warrant an analyst? Not large enough? Is there any indication an analyst will eventually be warranted? When? f. Are there other sources of data that can be drawn upon to provide credibility for your market? g. How does one go about obtaining a copy of the reports produced by the analysts and other sources? 6. Stage 2 Aim (60 days) Now that a market has been identified and that it has an unmet need or needs, the next task is to develop a product/service that provides a sufficient value proposition for potential customers to consider your product/service. This stage begins with a primary research study involving potential customers. These potential customers will become the basis of the beta group used in Stage 3 Fire to refine your product/service and your set of launch customers. Once the data is collected it needs to be analyzed by a market research professional and turned into actionable information management can use to design the product/service as well as the accompanying launch program. As few start-ups possess the necessary skills to perform this analysis on their own, an outside firm will need to be hired. This requires the firm knowing how to select and work with a market research firm to develop the methodology, questions and data analysis. The final step in this stage is using the information produced to develop a strategy to get the market ready for the product/service. A. Topics to Cover a. Primary market research b. Selecting who to interview c. Conducting the interviews, interpreting the data and analysis of results d. Use of outside firms e. Preparing the market for your product B. Primary Market Research a. Description of the type of data to be collected. At this stage, you are looking to collect data on the following: i. Market segments in your overall market and their relative sizes in terms of number of customers ii. Addressable market, i.e. the market you can reach given the resources available to you at the current time iii. An estimate of how much each customer intends to spend in the coming year on products/services like yours iv. An identification of light, medium and heavy users in the addressable segment 4 P a g e

5 v. An identification of the shortcomings members of the addressable market see in the current product/service offerings vi. A rating of these shortcomings in terms of importance to the potential customers vii. An identification of the purchase decision process involved viii. Identification of the number of potential customers looking to make a change within the next year b. A discussion of the types surveys that will be used to conduct this research i. Qualitative Executive interviews or focus groups. These are usually done with a select group of potential customers to ensure the ideas and assumptions being used by the new venture and the same as those held by the potential customer base. At this stage, open ended questions are used to elicit the broadest response and these are summarized into similar topics. ii. Quantitative This type of research involves formal questionnaires, conducted in-person or electronically, being used. The questions are typically based on the information gathered during the qualitative phase and are closed-ended to aid in the data analysis. c. Types of questions i. Open ended These questions are designed to obtain the broadest opinions from the interviewee. This type of question is typically used during the qualitative stage to provide the guidelines for the closed ended questions discussed in the next section. An example of this type of question is: Based on your experience, what products are available to solve XXXX problem? The benefit of initially using such questions is they allow the potential customer to identify the characteristics and set the boundaries. The downside of such questions is the responses are difficult to analyze as the sample size gets larger. ii. Closed ended These questions give the user a set number of options from which to choose. These responses to these questions are easier to analyze as the data falls into clearly defined buckets but if the incorrect question is asked the responses will not provide useful information. An example of such a question is Based on your experience, which of the following products can be used to solve problem XXXX? Product A Product B Product C Product D Other (List) None 5 P a g e

6 d. Developing an interview methodology i. Initial Interviews These are usually done with market or opinion leaders to get a broad sense of the problems, their severity, options under consideration and an assessment of the competition. These interviews will form the basis of the questions. A small sample size of potential customers should also be tested with the completed questionnaire to test the effectiveness of the questions. ii. Mid-stage interviews - These are conducted with enough potential customers to develop a reasonably sized data set to perform the necessary data analysis on market size and customer segmentation. These interviews can also be used to refine the questionnaire. iii. Late stage interviews These are conducted with the final group of potential customers required to complete the data analysis. e. Selecting interview subjects The goal should be to complete a minimum of 35 but preferably 100 interviews with potential customers. When completing this process, it s important to think of it in the same terms as obtaining a sale, i.e. a funnel approach. At the top of the funnel is the total number of potential customers or target market. Lists of members from this group can be obtained by purchasing data bases from associated trade or industry groups. This group should be identified by the secondary research previously conducted and verified by the executive interviews. The second group is the interested market identified as those willing to take part in the survey. Based on this group the original list will be further reduced to those that express an interest in the opportunity identified by the management team and expressed in the survey. Further reducing the number of participants is the number seeking a solution to this problem. The number is further reduced by measuring those willing to pay for a solution and what conditions need to be in place to get them to purchase. f. Interviewing, Interpreting and Analyzing Results Unless experienced in the research process, this is best done by an outside contractor like a market research house or consulting group. When selecting the right option it s important to locate a partner with experience conducting similar studies, experience with your industry and access to the necessary resources. In addition to the experience provided by the outside party, you are also using them to provide a level of objectivity to the evaluation as they do not have a personal connection with the project. The analysis of the results will yield two key pieces of information: the minimum features sought in the first edition of your product or service and which group to target as your launch customers. 6 P a g e

7 g. Preparing the Market A major part of this stage is getting the market ready for the venture s product. The process used is similar to the sales process and involves moving down the funnel beginning with an identification of the target market and proceeding on to locate suspected members of this group willing to purchase and the identification of the prospects most likely to act and finally developing a list of companies to close on. h. Customer Use and Success Stories When possible, the report should include case studies of successful customers and references from beta customers. Such backup material adds tremendous credibility to the document. i. Press and Industry Analysis Provide any press articles or coverage received from analysts regarding the venture to show the industry, particularly prospective customers, understand the proposed product/service. Such coverage also documents that others understand the procedures used for evaluating the market. 7. Stage 3 Fire (No set time limits) A. Quick Release The cornerstone of this stage is the identification of tightly targeted, narrow markets and a product/service with a minimum feature set based on the research conducted in Stage 2. The company must have the resources to reach these markets and have a developed marketing plan to capture customers. The first customers captured under this strategy are the ones with the greatest unmet problem and are willing to accept a basic product that addresses this problem. The venture must also include plans to make fast product iterations based on feedback received from the launch customers. This requires the development and implementation of a feedback system. B. Written Specifications This stage of the market validation will contain the written product/service specifications to make it easier for suppliers and customers to understand what problems the product/service addresses and the component parts involved. In addition, written schedules will be provided detailing such areas as the marketing plan, procurement schedule and the venture s proposed sales cycle. This section will also include a 7 P a g e

8 description of the feedback system to be used to ensure customer feedback reaches the development team on a timely basis. By adding this process, the venture is able to kill features early in the development process before large amounts of time and capital are committed. C. Design Partner Programs This is a subset of the target market selected to provide the venture with information on the product/service s usage and design. Typically, this group is selected from those customers expressing the greatest need to address the identified problem. This group can also serve as the venture s early sales pipeline and provide the case studies previously identified. D. Advisory Board Programs The purpose of this group is also to provide information on the usage and support system required by the venture. This group however contains industry experts, representatives from all parts of the buying process (user, influencer, buyer, budget owner, etc.) so the venture has a more in-depth look at the process. Members of this group can also provide the case studies cited earlier as well as form the basis of the initial sales pipeline. E. Launch A sample budget must be developed for the initial year of operations. Based on the information collected during the previous two steps, this budget shows the key development, marketing, sales and feedback expenditures for the first year of operations. For businesses at this stage of development, the budget is the most crucial tool for measuring the success of the strategy and estimating the financial cost of missed milestones. Based on best practices of successful start-ups and existing companies, the budget for the first year s sales and marketing must equal for development. 8. For More Information Please contact: Robert Warren Director of Capital Markets Manitoba Jobs and the Economy Robert.warren@gov.mb.ca Phone: (204) P a g e